- The average rolling 60-day correlation of daily returns across the 21 pairs of Magnificent Seven stocks recently fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, according to a CNBC analysis. The group is trading less like a single block and more on company-specific AI exposure.
- The divergence has left the basket behind. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is up 7% this year versus 12% for the S&P 500, a gap of about 5 percentage points (Lumida calculation); Nvidia and Apple are the only members outperforming the index, while Tesla and Meta are down for the year.
- Apple has gone from laggard to leader. After returning 8.9% in 2025, second-worst in the group, its 28% gain in 2026 leads the pack, as investors reward it for not joining the AI capex race; D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria called it “the place to hide from the AI trade.”
- Wall Street is still bullish on nearly every name. Per LSEG, 97% of analysts rate Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia a buy or strong buy, versus 92% for Alphabet, 89% for Meta, 58% for Apple and 50% for Tesla.
What Happened?
CNBC calculated the rolling 60-day correlations for each pair among Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. The companies “all have different exposures to AI,” said Luria, requiring a more granular approach than owning them wholesale. Nvidia has fallen more than 13% since its Oct. 6 peak, Meta turned negative after reporting negative free cash flow and raising its capex floor, and Alphabet’s chart has weakened since its March-to-May run. Freedom Capital Markets’ Jay Woods sees $530 to $550 as resistance for Microsoft.
Why It Matters?
The breakdown changes how investors should approach megacap tech. A basket that once moved together on the AI theme now rewards stock selection, with each company judged on its own driver: Azure for Microsoft, Google Cloud and Search for Alphabet, AWS for Amazon, chip demand for Nvidia and robotics and robotaxis for Tesla. Lower correlation also means less concentration risk for index investors, but greater dispersion for anyone trading the group as a single bet.
What’s Next?
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the bell Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, which could widen the dispersion further. Investors will watch cloud growth and capex guidance for each company, since those have become the clearest dividing lines. Roundhill’s Thomas DiFazio said investors are “focusing on the micro factors” that signal which companies can flourish in an AI world.
Affected Tickers and Coins: MAGS, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA, TSLA
Source: CNBC
