- MariTide is Amgen’s big swing. The monthly weight-loss shot is the most closely watched drug in Amgen’s pipeline and could be the biggest product in its history, in an obesity market expected to surpass $120 billion in annual sales, Bloomberg reports.
- Earnings will bring scrutiny. Amgen will face questions when it reports earnings Tuesday about whether MariTide will measure up against rivals Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with BMO’s Evan Seigerman asking, “is the profile differentiated enough to warrant the hype?”
- Amgen is going all in. In August the company discontinued its only other clinical-stage obesity drug, and it has launched nine late-stage studies of MariTide in weight loss and maintenance, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnea, with details from the first expected next year.
- The prize is large. Success could mean MariTide sales of $6 billion a year by 2035, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, which would be more than any Amgen drug on the market today.
What Happened?
MariTide was engineered with help from DNA samples from nearly 200,000 Icelanders held by DeCode Genetics, which Amgen bought in 2012 for $415 million. The data showed that lower activity of the GIP receptor was associated with lower body weight, the opposite approach to Lilly, whose GIP-activating route produced Mounjaro and Zepbound. Amgen is developing MariTide as a monthly shot and exploring whether as few as four or six injections a year might work. “Even if it’s a monthly drug, that’s 12 injections per year instead of 52,” said Leerink’s David Risinger.
Why It Matters?
MariTide is not likely to reach consumers until 2028, and less-frequent dosing may not be enough to set it apart as competitors like Pfizer advance their own monthly shots. Early trials also raised questions about gastrointestinal side effects, potency and whether its complex biologic design could make it more expensive. For Amgen shareholders, the drug is the defining test of a genetics-driven research strategy the company has spent more than a decade building.
What’s Next?
Amgen is scaling up manufacturing in Ohio, North Carolina and Puerto Rico, fine-tuning its pitch to insurers and employers, and expanding its AmgenNow direct-to-patient platform for cash-paying patients. Watch Tuesday’s earnings for updates on the MariTide program and launch timeline, and next year’s first late-stage trial data.
Affected Tickers and Coins: AMGN, LLY, NVO, PFE
Source: Bloomberg
