- Valuation expectations are coming down. Institutional investors planning to buy into Anthropic’s IPO have told the Claude maker and its advisers in recent days that its valuation should be around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal. That is well below figures closer to $2 trillion discussed in recent months.
- Investors list several worries. They cite choppy markets, concerns about overexposure to AI, political backlash against data centers, and uncertainty over how soon hyperscalers such as Amazon and Meta can show AI-related profits, the WSJ reported. Anthropic hasn’t finalized a valuation target or the number of shares it will sell.
- Revenue is surging. Anthropic said in an updated filing Monday that revenue hit $17 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6 billion in the prior quarter, partly offset by $600 million in price reductions from new model versions and contractual discounts. That is quarter-over-quarter growth of about 47% (Lumida calculation).
- Computing commitments are enormous. The filing disclosed purchase commitments and lease agreements with aggregate committed spend of about $895.4 billion, including roughly $447.5 billion expected before the end of 2030.
What Happened?
Last week’s double-digit drops in tech stocks including Intel and Alphabet, after a string of disappointing earnings, hardened investor demands for a lower price. Some investors told the WSJ they trust Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao to set a conservative valuation that leaves room for a first-day “pop,” and believe a debut at roughly $1.5 trillion could jump to $2 trillion by the end of the first trading day. Anthropic plans to launch its roadshow as soon as next week, with its debut on track for the week before Thanksgiving.
Why It Matters?
Anthropic’s IPO is the biggest test yet of public-market appetite for AI. A $1.5 trillion valuation would be about 25% below the $2 trillion figure discussed earlier (Lumida calculation), a sign that the tech selloff is changing the terms for AI companies seeking capital. Many other companies eyeing the public markets are waiting to see how Anthropic performs, and investors expect a flood of offerings early next year if the listing goes smoothly.
What’s Next?
Watch for the roadshow launch, when Anthropic is expected to propose a price range and the number of shares it plans to sell, revealing its target valuation. Unlike SpaceX, which named a single IPO price, Anthropic is expected to take a more traditional route with a range. The stock’s first-day performance will shape the IPO pipeline for 2027.
Affected Tickers and Coins: AMZN, META, GOOGL, QQQ
Source: WSJ
