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China Warns of Global Risks as U.S.-China Tariff War Escalates to 125%

by Team Lumida
April 12, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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China’s Economic Struggles: Factory Activity Falls Again

Source: CNBC

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Key Takeaways:

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  • Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao criticized U.S. tariffs, warning they could harm developing nations and trigger a humanitarian crisis.
  • China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, matching the U.S.’s move, while vowing to take further countermeasures to safeguard its interests.
  • The U.S.-China trade war now threatens $690 billion in bilateral trade, with no signs of resolution as both sides dig in.
  • President Trump hinted at possible exemptions for some nations but maintained a 10% baseline tariff as a floor for trade negotiations.

What Happened?

The U.S.-China trade war escalated further as both nations raised tariffs on each other’s goods to 125%, adding to existing levies. Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao condemned the U.S.’s unilateral tariff policies, warning of severe consequences for developing nations and the global economy. Wang called for WTO members to unite against protectionism and emphasized China’s commitment to defending its rights and promoting multilateralism.

President Trump, meanwhile, defended his tariff strategy, stating that the U.S. dollar would remain the global currency of choice and hinting at potential exemptions for certain nations. However, he reaffirmed that the 10% baseline tariff would remain a minimum threshold for trade negotiations.

The trade war has already caused significant market volatility, with fears of a global recession mounting. Beijing has pledged to “fight to the end” while signaling it will not match further U.S. tariff hikes.


Why It Matters?

The escalating U.S.-China trade war poses significant risks to the global economy, with $690 billion in trade now under threat. Developing nations, which rely heavily on trade with both the U.S. and China, are particularly vulnerable to the fallout.

The high tariff rates are expected to drive up costs for businesses and consumers, disrupt supply chains, and exacerbate inflationary pressures. The prolonged trade conflict also risks undermining the global trading system, as both nations pursue unilateral measures over multilateral solutions.

For the U.S., the tariffs are part of a broader strategy to bring manufacturing jobs back home and reduce the trade deficit. However, the economic and market volatility caused by these policies could have long-term consequences for the U.S.’s position as a global economic leader.


What’s Next?

The U.S. and China remain locked in a tit-for-tat escalation, with no clear resolution in sight. Both sides are expected to continue exploring countermeasures, while other nations may seek exemptions from U.S. tariffs to protect their economies.

The global community, led by organizations like the WTO, will likely face increasing pressure to mediate the conflict and prevent further damage to the international trading system. Investors and businesses will closely monitor developments, particularly any signs of a potential thaw in U.S.-China relations or shifts in tariff policies.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

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