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Goldman Sachs Slashes US Recession Odds: What Investors Need to Know

by Team Lumida
August 5, 2024
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Goldman’s Big Bet on Wealth Lending: Doubling Down on the Ultra-Rich

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Key Takeaways:

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  1. Goldman Sachs reduces US recession probability to 25% from 35%.
  2. Improved economic data and resilient job market drive forecast change.
  3. Investors should monitor consumer spending and Federal Reserve policies.

What Happened?

Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the probability of a US recession within the next year from 35% to 25%. This adjustment reflects stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly in consumer spending and the job market.

The revised forecast contrasts with earlier predictions that anticipated a sharper economic downturn.

Why It Matters?

This update is significant for several reasons. First, Goldman Sachs is a major financial institution, and their forecasts influence market sentiment. Lower recession odds suggest a more resilient economy, which could bolster investor confidence.

Improved consumer spending and a robust job market indicate economic stability, reducing fears of an imminent downturn. “We’ve seen stronger growth and employment data than we anticipated,” said Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs.

What’s Next?

Investors should stay vigilant. Although the recession risk has decreased, monitoring key indicators like consumer spending trends and Federal Reserve policies remains crucial.

The Federal Reserve’s future actions on interest rates could impact market conditions. Moreover, any shifts in consumer behavior could alter economic forecasts. Keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and corporate earnings to gauge the market’s direction.

Source: Blooomberg
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018