- The quarter disappointed. Match Group reported third-quarter revenue of $891 million, missing the average estimate compiled by Bloomberg, and guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $327.5 million to $332.5 million, also below projections.
- Shares slipped late. The stock fell about 2.4% in extended trading after closing at $42.07 in New York. Shares are up 28% this year.
- Users are still shrinking, but more slowly. Total paying users dropped 5% to 13.8 million, a smaller decline than analysts expected, with most of the drop coming from Tinder, where paying customers fell about 4%. Hinge’s paying users rose 23% to 2.3 million.
- Some numbers beat. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $344 million versus an average estimate of $331.9 million, and fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $865 million to $875 million is in line with expectations at the midpoint, according to Bloomberg.
What Happened?
Match, which owns Tinder, OkCupid and Match.com, is in the middle of a multiyear turnaround under CEO Spencer Rascoff aimed at winning back Gen Z users. Tinder has bet on in-person events, a redesigned app, AI features and group and double dates. The company said Tinder’s daily active users returned to growth in September for the first time in three and a half years. “We still have plenty of work to do in the 18-to-24 cohort,” Rascoff said.
Why It Matters?
Match has warned that Tinder revenue won’t return to growth until 2027, so investors are looking for signs that user trends are turning first. The return to growth in daily active users is a positive signal, but the revenue miss and soft profit outlook show the turnaround is still costly. Rival Bumble agreed last month to go private in a $1.3 billion deal, highlighting pressure across the online dating industry.
What’s Next?
Watch whether Tinder’s daily active user growth continues and starts to lift paying users in coming quarters. Investors will also track Hinge’s growth as an offset and whether Match can deliver fourth-quarter revenue within its $865 million to $875 million range.
Affected Tickers and Coins: MTCH, BMBL
Source: Bloomberg
