Key Takeaways
- President Trump is actively weighing a military operation to physically extract nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium from Iran — a mission that would require U.S. forces to operate inside the country for days or more under fire, according to U.S. officials.
- Trump has told associates that Iran cannot keep the material, and has encouraged advisers to press Tehran to surrender it as a ceasefire condition — with seizure by force as the explicit fallback if Iran refuses at the negotiating table.
- The operation would be among the most complex ever ordered: special operations teams trained in nuclear material handling would need to locate uranium stored in 40–50 scuba-tank-shaped cylinders at heavily damaged underground sites, secure perimeters under fire, and potentially set up a makeshift airfield to extract equipment and the material — a process experts say would take days or a week.
- The Pentagon is also considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region and positioning Marine and 82nd Airborne units to seize strategic locations, including an island off Iran’s southern coast, giving the president a range of escalation options.
What Happened?
President Trump is seriously considering ordering a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium from Iran’s nuclear sites — including underground facilities at Isfahan and Natanz — according to U.S. officials. The president has not yet made a decision, and is weighing the risks to U.S. troops, but remains “generally open” to the idea because of his stated goal of permanently denying Iran nuclear weapons capability. Trump has also pushed advisers to make uranium surrender a condition of any ceasefire, and told associates on Sunday that Iran will “give us the nuclear dust.” The Pentagon already has many of the assets needed for such a mission in the region, and is weighing whether to send an additional 10,000 troops. Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are serving as diplomatic intermediaries, but direct U.S.-Iran negotiations have not yet begun.
Why It Matters?
This is potentially the most consequential military decision of the Iran war, and one with direct implications for global markets. If Trump orders the uranium extraction — whether by force or as part of a negotiated handover — it would fundamentally alter the nuclear threat calculus in the Middle East, removing the material that could otherwise be enriched to weapons grade within months. But the risk of escalation is severe: a raid on Iranian nuclear sites under fire would almost certainly trigger intense Iranian retaliation, extending the war well beyond the four-to-six-week timeline Trump’s team has outlined publicly, prolonging Strait of Hormuz disruption, and keeping oil prices elevated. Even a botched or partial raid could be destabilizing. The diplomatic alternative — Iran agreeing to hand over the uranium as part of a peace deal — would represent a historic nonproliferation achievement but faces enormous obstacles given that Iran has not yet entered direct negotiations with Washington.
What’s Next?
The most immediate signal to watch is whether Pakistan, Turkey, or Egypt can broker the direct U.S.-Iran talks that have not yet materialized. Trump’s public comments — telling reporters Iran will “give us the nuclear dust” — suggest he is framing uranium surrender as a non-negotiable condition of any deal. If Iran refuses, the military option becomes live. Defense Secretary Hegseth has already hinted the U.S. has “options” to seize the material if Iran won’t give it up voluntarily. Investors should watch oil futures, Strait of Hormuz shipping reports, and any diplomatic signals from Tehran’s intermediaries as leading indicators of whether the war is moving toward a deal — or toward a dangerous escalation that could extend the conflict into summer.
