- A single wallet on decentralized options exchange Derive bought 800 contracts of $90,000 bitcoin calls expiring Nov. 6 on Oct. 20, a position Derive said is about $68 million in face value and the largest open bitcoin position on the platform. The bet targets a rally just after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
- The trade was not a simple outright purchase. The wallet sold 400 contracts of $100,000 calls expiring in March 2027 and another 400 of $90,000 calls expiring Oct. 30, collecting about $940,000 net after financing the purchase.
- Sentiment on Derive has turned more bullish. Its market-implied probability of bitcoin topping $100,000 by Christmas rose to 12% from 9.7% a week ago, while the implied chance of falling below $70,000 by Christmas dropped to 11% from 15.6%.
- The rest of the market is more cautious. Bitcoin was trading around $80,000, so the $90,000 strike sits about 12.5% above spot (Lumida calculation), and on the much larger Deribit exchange, front-end 25-delta skews for bitcoin and ether are negative, meaning puts cost more than calls.
What Happened?
CoinDesk reported Monday that a trader on Derive placed a $68 million bet that bitcoin will climb above $90,000 just after the U.S. midterm elections. On Oct. 20 the wallet bought 800 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring Nov. 6, with each contract representing one bitcoin. It partly financed the position by selling 400 contracts of March 2027 $100,000 calls and 400 contracts of Oct. 30 $90,000 calls, netting about $940,000. Bitcoin was trading around $80,000, roughly where it was on Saturday, and other major tokens including ether, XRP, solana and dogecoin were similarly listless.
Why It Matters?
The structure shows a trader positioning for a specific event-driven move while getting paid to wait, rather than making a pure directional bet. Selling longer-dated $100,000 calls caps some upside in exchange for premium, which suggests the trader sees the midterms as a near-term catalyst rather than the start of a run to new highs. The rising $100,000-by-Christmas odds on Derive contrast with negative skew on Deribit, so on-chain bulls and the broader institutional options market are not yet aligned. Derive is the largest decentralized exchange by notional volume and open interest per DefiLlama, but it remains much smaller than Deribit, which trades several billion dollars of volume and open interest every day.
What’s Next?
The Oct. 30 expiry of the calls the wallet sold comes first, followed by the Nov. 6 expiry right after the midterm vote, which will decide whether the bet pays off. Wednesday’s Fed decision is a nearer test for bitcoin. A move in Deribit skew from negative toward neutral would be a sign that bullish positioning is spreading beyond Derive. If bitcoin stays near $80,000 into early November, the long $90,000 calls would expire worthless.
Affected Tickers and Coins: BTC, ETH
Source: CoinDesk
