- Bitcoin surged as much as 4.9% to $72,738 — a three-week high — after the US and Iran agreed to an initial ceasefire, with Ether gaining as much as 7.4% to $2,273 as risk assets broadly rallied
- Crude oil slumped and stocks jumped on hopes that the two-week bombing suspension could lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ease inflation fears that have weighed on markets since the war began in late February
- US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $471.3 million in net inflows Monday — a sharp reversal from nearly $300 million in outflows the prior week — with March recording ~$1.3 billion in net ETF inflows, the first stabilization after four consecutive months of outflows
- Bitcoin remains down more than 40% from its October record above $126,000; analysts say a sustained bull market recovery depends on whether easing oil prices bring inflation down enough for the Fed to resume rate cuts
What Happened?
Bitcoin rallied sharply on Wednesday after President Trump agreed to suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks, conditional on Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The largest cryptocurrency spiked as much as 4.9% to $72,738 — its highest level since March 18 — before paring some gains to trade around $71,300 at midday Singapore time. Ether climbed as much as 7.4% to $2,273, with smaller tokens posting similar moves. Stocks surged and crude oil slumped simultaneously, reflecting broad market relief that the most extreme scenario of open-ended conflict and permanent Hormuz disruption had been at least temporarily averted.
Why It Matters?
Crypto markets have spent five weeks whipsawing on war-driven macro uncertainty, with inflation fears and risk-off sentiment keeping institutional buyers on the sidelines. The ceasefire rally is the latest signal that Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory is tightly coupled to geopolitical and oil market dynamics rather than crypto-native catalysts. Encouragingly for bulls, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have begun to stabilize: Monday’s $471.3 million in net inflows followed $22.3 million last week and reversed a sustained outflow trend that began in November 2025. March posted roughly $1.3 billion in ETF net inflows — a meaningful floor signal, even as the asset sits more than 40% below its October record above $126,000.
What’s Next?
Traders caution that the ceasefire is fragile and markets are likely to remain choppy until a durable resolution to the Iran conflict is in sight. The critical variable for crypto is the inflation outlook: if the ceasefire holds, oil supply gradually recovers, and inflation moderates, the Federal Reserve may have room to resume interest-rate cuts — a historically powerful tailwind for risk assets including Bitcoin. The two-week ceasefire clock has already started ticking, and any sign that Iran is not fully complying with Strait reopening demands could rapidly reverse the day’s gains.
Source: Bloomberg
