- About $11 billion of bitcoin options expire on Oct. 30, roughly a third of all outstanding bitcoin options on Deribit, just days before the Nov. 3 US midterm elections.
- Many of the bullish bets look out of reach. Calls outnumber puts, with big concentrations at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 that are now likely to expire worthless, while bitcoin was down 2% at about $79,600 on Thursday in Singapore.
- The risk sits near the current price. About 70% of the expiring options’ gamma is concentrated between $75,000 and $82,000, according to Tesseract Group’s Adam Haeems, and below the $80,000 strike puts outnumber calls by more than two to one.
- The midterms are the next catalyst. A Bloomberg News Market Pulse survey put the median year-end bitcoin forecast at $90,800 if Republicans keep both chambers, $84,100 for a split Congress and $76,450 if Democrats take control.
What Happened?
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday and has hovered around that level this week. Haeems said public data does not reveal which side of the trades dealers hold; if dealers are short, their hedging could accelerate a fall through $75,000 to $78,000, while long positioning could cushion a decline. Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron said investors who usually sell new options after expiry may wait until after the elections, so “the usual gamma supply dries up.”
Why It Matters?
Options hedging can turn a modest move into a sharp one when large expiries cluster near the spot price. With the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate and control of Congress up for grabs, the election outcome could shift the outlook for crypto regulation for the remaining two years of Trump’s term, which matters for bitcoin, crypto exchanges and ETF flows.
What’s Next?
Watch price action into Friday’s expiry, particularly around $80,000, and whether implied volatility rises into the Nov. 3 vote. Wincent’s Paul Howard expects a “meaningful pickup” in volatility in November and more buying of downside protection around current prices.
Affected Tickers and Coins: BTC, IBIT, COIN, MSTR
Source: Bloomberg
