- The positioning flush is not finished. Global macro hedge funds barely reduced their equity exposure as the S&P 500 posted its worst week since 2025, according to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data cited by Bloomberg, even as retail investors and single-stock hedge funds headed for the exits.
- Selling was concentrated in single names. Individual stocks saw the largest net selling in four months last week, while index and ETF macro products were net bought, Goldman’s data showed.
- Systematic funds could add pressure. Goldman-tracked systematic signals are negative across about 60% of global equity markets, implying roughly $28 billion of potential selling in S&P 500 futures over the coming week and $45 billion over the next month.
- Options positioning points to bigger swings. SpotGamma said negative gamma zones stretch across 7,000 to 7,550 on the S&P 500, which rose 2.4% Monday to close at 7,549.94; the bottom of that zone sits about 7.3% below Monday’s close by our calculation.
What Happened?
Last week’s US stock rout may have flushed out some of the market’s concentration excess but didn’t eliminate it, Bloomberg reported. “The good news is that positioning has come down to average levels from all-time highs,” said John Marshall, a partner at Carrick Lane. “The bad news is we haven’t come down so much that you can buy equities on positioning indicators alone.” Marshall noted that spreads on S&P 500 futures were stable last week and that macro investors have responded more to oil and rates than to AI news. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% after faster-than-estimated inflation sparked a bond rout on bets the Fed will keep lifting rates.
Why It Matters?
If macro funds, which have so far held on, start trimming as rates rise, the next leg of de-risking could hit index products rather than single stocks, which is where the selling was concentrated last week. Technical gauges also argue against calling a bottom: BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky noted that 62% of S&P 500 companies still trade above their 200-day moving average, versus under 30% at typical sustainable lows, and put/call demand gauges remain well below the March and July bottoms. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025, and historically its 50-day returns after such breakdowns have been negative on average. “Until those positions clear, the data suggests larger price swings in either direction remain likely,” SpotGamma analysts wrote.
What’s Next?
A dense run of catalysts follows Tuesday’s CPI report: Nvidia earnings on Nov. 17, the Anthropic IPO pricing and VIX options expiration on Nov. 18, and monthly equity options expiration on Nov. 20. Watch whether systematic selling in S&P 500 futures materializes near Goldman’s $28 billion one-week estimate, and whether the index can hold the 7,000 level at the low end of SpotGamma’s negative-gamma zone.
Affected Tickers and Coins: SPY, QQQ, SOXX, NVDA
Source: Bloomberg
