- Yields moved higher across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, rose more than 4 basis points to 4.935% on Tuesday. The 30-year yield was up 4 basis points at 5.309%, and the 2-year yield, which tracks Fed rate expectations more closely, rose more than 2 basis points to 4.608%.
- Strong labor data added pressure. September job openings rose to 7.523 million, beating the 7.125 million economists polled by Dow Jones expected, according to CNBC. Bloomberg reported that layoffs fell to their lowest level since March 2025 and the quits rate rose to 2.1%, the highest in over a year.
- Politics is in focus. Americans voted in the midterm elections on Tuesday, and investors are watching how the result will shape Congress and move markets.
- Oil eased, limiting the inflation scare. US crude futures for December delivery fell less than 1% to about $95 a barrel and Brent was more than 1% lower at around $103, as investors grew hopeful about a resolution to the Middle East conflict, after oil had initially risen on US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
What Happened?
Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as voting began in the US midterm elections and investors weighed a busy week of economic data and Middle East tensions. The move followed a mixed Monday session, when the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points and the 2-year rose by more than 1 basis point. September’s JOLTS report showed openings well above forecasts, with Bloomberg describing a four-month high in vacancies and the lowest layoffs since March 2025.
Why It Matters?
With the 10-year near 4.94% and the 30-year above 5.3%, borrowing costs for households and companies remain high, and a firmer labor market reduces pressure on the Fed to ease. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time in three years and left them unchanged last week, according to Bloomberg, so strong data keeps the focus on inflation. The midterm result adds another layer of uncertainty for fiscal policy and the bond market.
What’s Next?
ISM services PMI and ADP employment data are due Wednesday, followed by October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment on Friday, when economists expect 65,000 new jobs and an unchanged jobless rate, according to Bloomberg. Election results and any shift in the balance of power in Congress could move yields once votes are counted. Oil prices tied to the Iran conflict remain a swing factor for inflation expectations.
