- The US is on track to add a record 89 gigawatts of clean energy this year and more in 2027, as developers race to claim expiring federal tax credits and data centre electricity demand accelerates, according to BloombergNEF.
- The forecast itself is the striking part. BNEF now expects installed data centre capacity to reach 118 gigawatts in 2030, 52% higher than it projected only last December, with average data centre power demand potentially reaching 120 gigawatts by 2035, roughly five times current levels and with AI computing responsible for nearly half.
- The same demand is driving fossil expansion. Up to 67.8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power could be added through 2030 against just 14.3 gigawatts of closures, a net increase of 53.5 gigawatts, and BNEF expects the US gas industry to swing from surplus to deficit as soon as 2028.
- Report author Hall Wellborn put it plainly, saying data centre growth remains a tailwind for renewable energy but that it is tainted by the growing gas pipeline.
What Happened?
Solar remains the largest category with 48.9 gigawatts expected in 2026, though the utility-scale forecast for 2026 to 2036 was revised down 7.5% to 430 gigawatts on new tariffs and the tax credit phaseout. Onshore wind additions through 2036 were revised up 15% to 99.7 gigawatts, and storage projections rose 35% to 383 gigawatts, helped by federal incentives for storage remaining in place as support for some renewables winds down. Technology companies are underwriting much of the expansion, with more than 15 gigawatts of corporate clean power contracts announced through August and Meta and Google accounting for nearly three-quarters. Rising demand has renewed interest in nuclear, with restarts, uprates and a limited number of new plants expected to add 13.7 gigawatts by 2036.
Why It Matters?
A 52% upward revision to a 2030 forecast in ten months is not a forecast, it is a moving target, and every piece of infrastructure being committed now is sized against it. Grid investment, gas plants, renewable projects and nuclear restarts all involve capital locked in for decades on the basis of demand estimates that have been revised by half within a year. That cuts both ways, and the downside case is now visible: CoreWeave’s credit default swaps price better than even odds of default, a $30 billion data centre IPO was refused twice, and Nscale is seeking $3 billion having built under 1% of its targeted capacity. If AI financing tightens materially, the demand that justifies this infrastructure softens while the infrastructure commitments remain. The 2028 gas deficit is the forecast with the clearest market consequence. The world’s largest gas producer moving into deficit because of domestic computing demand would affect US power prices, LNG export economics and household heating costs, which the EIA already expects to rise 21% this winter. For anyone modelling energy costs, data centre load is now a primary variable rather than a sectoral curiosity. The tax credit cliff is producing a pull-forward that deserves recognition. Record installations in 2026 and 2027 are occurring because developers are racing expiring incentives, and the ten-year utility-scale solar forecast has been cut 7.5% even as this year sets records. Activity is being borrowed from later periods rather than created, which is the same pattern visible in UK capital gains receipts jumping 40% ahead of a rate rise. Note also the concentration: two companies account for three-quarters of corporate clean power contracting, so the renewable buildout depends heavily on the capital expenditure decisions of Meta and Alphabet.
What Next?
Watch whether BNEF revises its data centre projections again, since the direction and magnitude of revisions is now more informative than the level. The gas pipeline through 2030 is the measure of how much of this demand is being met with fossil generation. For energy markets, the approach of a domestic gas deficit around 2028 is the structural change to position for. Corporate clean power contracting by the hyperscalers is the leading indicator of whether the buildout continues at this pace, and it would slow before construction does.
Affected Tickers and Coins: META, GOOGL, NG, GEV, FSLR
Source: Bloomberg
