- Coca-Cola now expects comparable EPS to grow at least 11% this year, up from 9% to 10%, and organic revenue to rise at least 5%, versus about 5% before. It is the company’s third straight full-year outlook increase.
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was 91 cents versus 88 cents expected, and revenue rose 7% to $13.4 billion against a $12.92 billion estimate. Unit case volume rose 5% for a second straight quarter, with Coca-Cola Zero Sugar volume up 16%.
- North America lagged, with flat volume that came in below analyst estimates as soda growth was offset by declines in water, sports drinks, coffee and tea. Executives blamed the timing of the July 4 holiday and a monthslong shortage of Topo Chico, which is now back on shelves in Texas.
- The stock has gained almost 33% this year through Monday’s close against a 12% rise in the S&P 500, while PepsiCo fell 6% over the same period, roughly a 21-point lead over the index (Lumida calculation). Vital Knowledge called it “a healthy beat-and-raise” but said the outlook hike “isn’t dramatic.”
What Happened?
Coca-Cola reported fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday that topped estimates and raised its full-year outlook, despite weaker demand in its home market. Net income attributable to shareholders rose to $4.01 billion, or 93 cents a share, from $3.7 billion, or 86 cents, a year earlier, and organic revenue climbed 7%. CEO Henrique Braun said the company raised prices in North America “in line with inflation.” Shares were little changed to slightly lower in morning trading.
Why It Matters?
The quarter shows the split in the global consumer: international soda demand is strong, while US shoppers stretched by inflation are hunting for value and eating out less. CFO John Murphy said the restaurant industry “continues to be under pressure,” making the at-home business stronger than away-from-home channels. Coca-Cola is also gaining share from PepsiCo, including taking over KFC’s US restaurants, which has supported its stock’s outperformance.
What’s Next?
Looking to 2027, Murphy expects consumer behavior to remain largely unchanged, with value a key consideration across all income groups. Investors will watch whether North American volume recovers once the holiday timing and Topo Chico supply issues fade, with the brand set to expand to more areas in 2027. Continued growth in zero-sugar soda and Fairlife will be key to sustaining the outperformance against PepsiCo.
