- XRP trades around $1.33, down 62.5% from its January 2018 peak of $3.55, leaving anyone who bought at that high underwater nearly nine years later. Bitcoin is up 314% from its December 2017 peak, dogecoin 322%, ether 66% and zcash 38% over the same span.
- The explanation is dilution rather than failure. Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard notes circulating supply grew 63%, from 38.7 billion tokens in 2017 to 63.1 billion, while total market value fell only about 3%. Each token therefore represents a smaller share of roughly the same aggregate value.
- Oliver Carding of Tesseract Group quantifies it: with 63% more tokens in circulation, the same market capitalisation implies a price roughly 39% lower. The asset held its value; the per-unit claim on it did not.
- Institutional demand has been thin. XRP funds have attracted just $1.80 billion since launching nearly a year ago, while bitcoin ETFs often take over $1 billion in a single day.
What Happened?
Nansen data shows XRP spot volume down 53.5%, perpetual futures volume down 44% and active addresses down 10.7%. Paul Howard of Wincent noted Ripple has concentrated on cross-border payments, RLUSD and trade financing rather than DeFi, AI or memecoins, which have drawn greater capital. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020 over roughly $1.3 billion raised selling XRP unregistered; a judge ruled in 2023 that public exchange sales were not securities offerings while institutional sales were, Ripple was ordered to pay $125 million in 2024, and both sides dropped their appeals in August 2025. Carding observed that XRP was above $3 when the case ended and has fallen about 59% since, against 32% for bitcoin and 44% for ether. He also noted that six of the other nine assets in the January 2018 top ten are further below their levels of that week than XRP is.
Why It Matters?
The gap between a 3% decline in total value and a 62.5% decline in price is the most useful thing in this article, and it applies well beyond crypto. This is dilution, the same mechanism that erodes shareholder returns when a company keeps issuing equity: the enterprise can hold its value while each unit’s claim on it shrinks. Anyone assessing a token should therefore look at market capitalisation and the supply schedule rather than the price chart, exactly as an equity investor looks at market value rather than share price. For XRP specifically, Ripple releases tokens from escrow on a defined cadence, which makes the dilution predictable and ongoing. Carding’s suggested framework is a good one: watch XRP against bitcoin alongside net monthly distribution after re-escrow, because if supply growth slows while XRP still lags, the problem is demand rather than issuance. The regulatory resolution is the counterintuitive part and worth noting for anyone trading legal outcomes. The SEC case concluded in August 2025 with XRP above $3, and the token has fallen 59% since, underperforming both bitcoin and ether. Removal of the overhang marked the high rather than the start of a recovery, which is what happens when an outcome is already priced. Clarity delivered is worth less than clarity anticipated. The survivorship point deserves emphasis too. Six of the other nine assets in the 2018 top ten are further below their peaks than XRP, so the narrative that holding crypto through cycles builds wealth is drawn from the handful that recovered. The comparison set that failed is larger than the one that succeeded, and that is the base rate anyone considering a long-term position should start from.
What Next?
Escrow releases are the supply variable and their pace is observable, so the ratio of XRP to bitcoin alongside slowing distribution is the cleanest read on demand. Fund flows remain weak at $1.80 billion over a year and a pickup would signal institutional interest returning. Ripple’s focus on payments infrastructure, RLUSD and trade finance may build ledger usage without supporting the token’s price, which is the distinction holders should be clear about. Activity measures including spot volume and active addresses have been declining and would need to turn first.
Affected Tickers and Coins: XRP, BTC, ETH, DOGE, ZEC, TRX, SOL, HYPE
Source: CoinDesk
