- Arcmont Asset Management CEO Anthony Fobel said the real picture in private credit is “almost directly the opposite” of recent negative press, with default rates in portfolios remaining low and institutional investors staying committed.
- Fobel questioned whether the industry should be pursuing retail investors for what is “essentially an illiquid asset class,” as a wave of retail redemption requests — including Partners Group capping withdrawals at 5% — has rattled sentiment.
- The private credit market, currently valued at $1.8 trillion, is on track to reach €4 trillion ($4.6 trillion) by 2030, per Fobel’s forecast — with the asset class described as “overwhelmingly institutionally backed” despite recent retail turbulence.
- Conference attendees at SuperReturn in Berlin voted that an end to Middle East geopolitical tensions would be the single biggest driver for the sector moving forward.
What Happened?
Arcmont Asset Management CEO Anthony Fobel took the stage at the SuperReturn private capital conference in Berlin to push back sharply against a wave of negative headlines about private credit. “What we are seeing indeed is almost directly the opposite of what we’re reading in the press,” he said, adding that he’d spoken directly to peers and institutional investors with access to underlying portfolio data, and that performance remains solid with default rates staying low. The remarks came amid a turbulent backdrop for the sector: redemption requests that had previously been contained to U.S. private credit vehicles spread to Europe last week when Swiss firm Partners Group capped withdrawals at 5% in one of its funds — a sign that retail nervousness is becoming contagious.
Why It Matters?
The private credit market has ballooned to $1.8 trillion and is now large enough that sentiment swings can affect broader credit conditions. The current divide — institutional investors staying put while retail money rushes for the exits — raises a structural question about whether the industry overextended itself in chasing less sophisticated investors for an asset class that requires long time horizons and tolerance for illiquidity. AI risk is also a live concern: the sector’s heavy software holdings have sparked worries about write-downs if AI disrupts portfolio companies’ valuations. That Ares’ Bennett Goodman and now Fobel are both publicly slapping down the narrative suggests the industry is organizing a coordinated response to the coverage.
What’s Next?
The SuperReturn conference will run for the week, with executive debates over AI’s impact, redemption policy design, and the retail versus institutional investor mix expected to dominate. Conference attendees themselves flagged an end to Middle East hostilities as the top macro driver they’re watching. Fobel’s growth forecast — from $1.8 trillion today to €4 trillion by 2030 — implies confidence that the current turbulence is a positioning shakeout rather than a structural breakdown, but the jury remains out until more portfolio performance data becomes public.
Source: Bloomberg
