Key Takeaways
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- China has faced significant challenges in reducing carbon emissions intensity, citing trade tensions, adverse weather, and the Covid-19 pandemic as key factors.
- Despite a surge in clean energy deployment, including wind and solar, China’s emissions intensity dropped only 7.9% by the end of 2024, short of its 18% target set for 2025.
- China achieved its 2030 target for wind and solar capacity additions ahead of schedule, by mid-2024.
- Overall emissions fell by 1% in the first half of 2025, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
- China’s long-term climate goals include peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving net zero by 2060.
- The country aims to reduce emissions intensity by 65% by 2030 from 2005 levels, requiring a more ambitious 22% cut in the next five-year plan.
- Energy use and emissions intensity remain key metrics for China’s short- and mid-term climate targets.
What Happened?
China’s Minister of Ecology and Environment acknowledged that controlling emissions intensity has been more difficult than expected due to external and internal challenges. While clean energy capacity has grown rapidly, emissions intensity reduction has lagged, putting pressure on future climate plans.
Why It Matters?
China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, so its progress on emissions intensity is critical for global climate goals. The shortfall in meeting interim targets raises concerns about the feasibility of China’s long-term commitments and may influence global energy markets and climate policy.
What’s Next?
Watch for China’s next five-year plan due in March, which will set more ambitious emissions intensity targets. Monitor policy shifts, clean energy investments, and emissions data. Investors should assess risks and opportunities in energy, clean tech, and carbon markets linked to China’s climate trajectory.