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Home News Crypto

Bitcoin and Nasdaq May Stabilize as Yen Bullish Positioning Looks Overstretched

by Team Lumida
March 11, 2025
in Crypto
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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  • Overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese yen (JPY) could lead to a reversal, offering relief to risk assets like Bitcoin and Nasdaq.
  • Institutional flows, including Japanese investors buying foreign assets, may slow the yen’s appreciation.
  • Bitcoin and Nasdaq have recently declined alongside a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields and yen strength, but a stabilization is possible.
  • Broader yen bullishness remains supported by a narrowing U.S.-Japan bond yield differential, signaling potential volatility ahead.

What Happened?

Bitcoin and Nasdaq have faced declines in recent weeks, coinciding with a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields and the strengthening of the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset. Speculators have taken record-long positions in the yen, reflecting expectations of continued appreciation. However, analysts, including Morgan Stanley, suggest that this bullish positioning is overstretched, setting the stage for a potential reversal. Institutional flows, such as Japanese investors buying foreign assets through the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) scheme, may also slow the yen’s rise. Bitcoin, currently trading near $80,300, has seen a month-to-date decline of 5%, while the USD/JPY pair has rebounded slightly after hitting a five-month low.


Why It Matters?

The yen’s strength has historically influenced global risk assets, as its appreciation often signals risk aversion in financial markets. A potential reversal in the yen’s rise could provide relief to Bitcoin and Nasdaq, which have been under pressure. However, the broader bullish outlook for the yen, supported by a narrowing U.S.-Japan bond yield differential, suggests that volatility in financial markets may persist. For investors, this dynamic highlights the interconnectedness of currency markets, bond yields, and risk assets, emphasizing the need for vigilance in managing exposure to these factors.


What’s Next?

While a temporary stabilization in Bitcoin and Nasdaq is possible, the broader yen bullish trend remains intact due to structural factors like the narrowing U.S.-Japan bond yield spread. Investors should monitor signs of volatility in the yen and its impact on global risk sentiment. Additionally, any shifts in institutional flows or central bank policies could influence the trajectory of the yen and, by extension, risk assets. For Bitcoin, a recovery from its recent declines will depend on broader market sentiment and its ability to regain momentum amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018