- Bitcoin climbed 2.2% in March — its first monthly gain since September — breaking a five-month losing streak as risk sentiment improved on Trump’s pledge to end the Iran war within weeks
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.2 billion in net inflows in March, ending a four-month stretch of net outflows and signaling a cautious return of institutional appetite
- The token remains ~45% below its all-time high of over $126,000 reached before the October selloff, and analysts say sustained prices above $70,000-$72,000 are needed to build real conviction
- Over $1.5 billion in put contracts at the $60,000 strike on Deribit signal that significant downside hedging remains in place among sophisticated traders
What Happened?
Bitcoin held just above $68,000 in early Asian trading Wednesday, extending gains after snapping a five-month losing streak in March with a 2.2% monthly gain — its first positive month since September. The rally was driven in part by President Trump’s late-Tuesday comment that he expects the U.S. to exit the Iran war within two to three weeks, triggering a broad risk-on move across equities and digital assets. Ether, the second-largest token, held above $2,100. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows in March, ending a four-month stretch of net outflows and suggesting a tentative return of institutional demand.
Why It Matters?
The end of Bitcoin’s losing streak matters as a sentiment signal — but analysts caution against reading too much into it. The token has been notably compressed relative to how much equity markets moved on the Iran war headline, suggesting crypto markets remain conditioned by months of policy reversals and macro uncertainty. Bitcoin is still roughly 45% below its all-time high of over $126,000 set before the October selloff, and the meaningful downside hedging visible on options markets — over $1.5 billion in put contracts at $60,000 on Deribit — shows that sophisticated traders are not yet convinced the bottom is in. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption remain the long-term bullish thesis, but near-term macro headwinds (supply chain disruption, high household debt, private credit stress) are keeping a lid on prices.
What’s Next?
Bitcoin needs to sustainably break above the $70,000 to $72,000 range to build broader conviction among investors, according to analysts. April is expected to bring renewed volatility as markets digest whatever emerges from Iran war negotiations. Bulls point to the structural tailwinds of ETF adoption, regulatory progress, and the approaching post-halving period as reasons to expect new all-time highs eventually. Bears point to persistent macro headwinds and the concentration of put options at $60,000 as evidence of continued downside risk. Bitwise Asset Management’s head of research said the positive March action signals investors are “waking up” to Bitcoin’s potential breakout from crypto winter — but the decisive catalyst may still depend on whether the Iran war truly winds down.
Source: Bloomberg
