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Bond Market Rallies as Weak Jobs Report Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts

by Team Lumida
August 4, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Photo by Nicholas Cappello on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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  • Treasury Surge: U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply after a weak July jobs report and major downward revisions to prior months, reversing a month of bond losses.
  • Steepener Trade Revival: The yield curve steepened dramatically, rewarding investors who bet on a wider gap between short- and long-term yields—a strategy that had been painful for much of July.
  • Rate Cut Odds Jump: Futures now price in an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut in September and at least two cuts by year-end, as traders react to signs of a cooling labor market.
  • Short-End Leads Gains: Two-year yields saw their biggest one-day drop since December 2023, driving the curve steepening and sparking heavy trading volumes.
  • Market Uncertainty Remains: Despite the rally, investors remain cautious, watching for more economic data and wary of inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal deficits.

What Happened?

A surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls report for July, including a massive downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, triggered a rush into Treasuries on Friday. The move reversed recent losses and reignited the “steepener” trade, where investors bet on a widening gap between short- and long-term yields. The two-year note yield fell by more than a quarter point, its biggest drop in over a year, as traders scrambled to price in faster Fed rate cuts. Futures volumes surged, and the 2s/30s spread saw its largest one-day rise since April.

The rally came after a period of hawkish Fed messaging and market skepticism about near-term cuts. Now, with the jobs data signaling a softer labor market, traders are betting the Fed will move sooner, even as inflation and tariff risks linger.


Why It Matters?

The bond market’s sharp reversal highlights how sensitive rates are to labor market data and Fed expectations. A sustained steepening of the yield curve could signal a shift toward easier monetary policy, but also raises questions about underlying economic strength. For investors, the episode underscores the risks and rewards of positioning for policy shifts in a volatile macro environment.


What’s Next?

All eyes are on upcoming inflation and jobs data, as well as the next Fed meeting in September. The Treasury’s quarterly refunding and heavy bond issuance could also influence yields. Expect continued volatility as markets weigh the odds of rate cuts against persistent inflation and policy uncertainty.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018