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Home News Markets

Bond Market Signals Growth Limits as Rising Yields Spook Stock Investors

by Team Lumida
January 9, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

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• 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7%, approaching 2024 highs
• Market expectations shift from one Fed cut to possible no cuts in 2025
• Small-cap stocks particularly vulnerable to rising yields
• Bond supply concerns emerge with potential Treasury policy shift

What Happened?

The stock market’s relationship with bond yields has fundamentally shifted over the past month. Initially, investors viewed higher yields as a byproduct of anticipated growth under the incoming Trump administration. However, sentiment has turned cautious as yields approach 4.7%, with particular pressure on smaller stocks. The market is now pricing in fewer Fed rate cuts for 2025, with only a 16% chance of multiple cuts compared to higher expectations in December.

Why It Matters?

This shift signals growing concerns about the economy’s growth limits and inflation risks. Higher yields without corresponding economic growth could pressure corporate profits and valuations. The situation is complicated by potential changes in Treasury borrowing patterns and corporate debt refinancing needs. The market’s reaction suggests we may be approaching a critical threshold where higher borrowing costs begin to meaningfully impact business activity and investment decisions.

What’s Next?

Watch for the 10-year yield’s movement toward the 5% level, which could trigger significant market volatility. Key factors to monitor include Treasury policy changes under the new administration, Fed policy decisions, and corporate refinancing patterns. Investors may need to reassess portfolio allocations, with bonds becoming more attractive both for yield and defensive purposes. The market’s ability to digest higher yields without significant disruption will be crucial for stock performance in 2025, particularly for small-cap stocks and highly leveraged companies.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018