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Home News Macro

China’s EV Revolution Signals Structural Shift in Global Oil Demand

by Team Lumida
December 23, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Chinese Stock Surge: A Hedge Fund Headache?
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Key Takeaways:

Powered by lumidawealth.com

  • China’s oil demand growth slowing to 0.8% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025
  • Transportation fuel demand peaked with gasoline projected 6.4% below 2021 levels by 2025
  • Over 50% of new passenger car sales in China are now new-energy vehicles
  • Refining capacity increased 42% (2011-2023) amid declining demand growth

What Happened?

China’s oil consumption patterns are undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by rapid EV adoption and industrial shifts. Despite being responsible for 16% of global oil demand and over half of demand growth since 2008, China’s transportation fuel consumption has peaked. New-energy vehicles now represent more than half of passenger car sales, while petrochemical sector demand has risen 59% between 2019-2024, reshaping the country’s oil consumption profile.

Why It Matters?

This structural shift in the world’s largest auto market and leading oil consumer has significant implications for global energy markets. The decline in transportation fuel demand, coupled with China’s excess refining capacity (18.5 million barrels/day), creates a challenging environment for international oil companies. The transformation threatens both upstream revenues through potential price pressure and downstream margins through increased competition from Chinese refineries.

What’s Next?

The trend suggests a continued decline in traditional transportation fuel demand as EV adoption accelerates. Oil companies must adapt to this new reality where China’s role as the primary driver of global oil demand growth diminishes. Investors should watch for:

  • Further acceleration in China’s EV adoption rates
  • Impact on global oil pricing and refining margins
  • Oil majors’ strategic responses to changing demand patterns
  • Development of China’s petrochemical sector as an alternative demand source
    This transition could mark the beginning of a broader structural change in global oil markets, particularly affecting integrated oil companies’ business models.
Tags: China
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018