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China’s Golden Week: Why Spending Still Trails Pre-Covid Levels

by Team Lumida
October 9, 2024
in Macro, Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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China’s Golden Week: Why Spending Still Trails Pre-Covid Levels
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Key Takeaways:

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Holiday spending rose 7.9% despite 10.2% more trips than 2019.

Stimulus improved sentiment but didn’t boost per-trip spending.

Stronger fiscal policies could sustain fragile consumer confidence.

What Happened?

Chinese tourists spent less during their recent holiday than before the pandemic, despite making 10.2% more trips compared to 2019. Spending increased by only 7.9%, revealing a 2.1% drop in per-trip expenditure from five years ago.

The average daily spending rose to 131 yuan ($18.6) per trip, up from May’s 113 yuan during the Labor Day holiday. Retail sales during the National Day holiday saw a 9% rise from last year, and cross-region trips increased by 3.9%.

Mainland visitors to Hong Kong also surged, with a daily average of 170,000, a 27% increase from 2023.

Why It Matters?

This spending pattern indicates that China’s recent stimulus measures have yet to fully reignite consumer confidence. While the government introduced interest-rate cuts and cash handouts, these efforts lacked strong fiscal support to address unemployment and stabilize the property market.

Goldman Sachs economists noted weak domestic demand and downgraded consumption, highlighting the need for more decisive actions. Michelle Lam from Societe Generale stressed the importance of labor market recovery and stable house prices to sustain consumer sentiment.

What’s Next?

To nurture the fragile improvement in consumer confidence, stronger fiscal policies are essential. Duncan Wrigley of Pantheon Macroeconomics emphasized the need for consistent fiscal support to prevent consumption from fading post-holidays.

While the recent stimulus sparked a stock market rally, investors remain cautious about its sustainability. Policymakers aim for a sustainable bull market, not a repeat of past volatility. Monitoring the government’s next steps in fiscal policy will be crucial for investors and the market’s future trajectory.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: ChinaConsumer Confidence
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018