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China’s Manufacturing Dominance Hits $1 Trillion Milestone Despite Western Pushback

by Team Lumida
January 16, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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China’s Central Bank Embraces Hedge Fund Tactics to Tame $4 Trillion Bond Market

"China's flag" by futureatlas.com is licensed under CC BY 2.0

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Key Takeaways:

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• China’s 2024 trade surplus reached nearly $1 trillion, triple the 2018 level
• China now accounts for 27% of global industrial production, projected to reach 45% by 2030
• Western tariffs and industrial policies have failed to significantly reduce China dependence
• China’s manufacturing dominance is creating economic imbalances and tensions globally

What Happened?

China has achieved an unprecedented $1 trillion trade surplus in 2024, demonstrating its growing manufacturing dominance despite years of Western efforts to reduce dependence. The country’s share of global industrial production has increased to 27%, up from 24% in 2018, with projections showing potential growth to 45% by 2030. This comes despite various measures implemented by the U.S. and allies, including tariffs, subsidies, and export controls.

Why It Matters?

This development signals a fundamental shift in global economic power dynamics. China’s growing manufacturing dominance poses challenges for both developed economies and emerging markets. Traditional manufacturing powers like Germany and Japan are losing market share, while developing nations struggle to establish their industrial bases. The massive trade surplus also highlights structural imbalances in the global economy, raising concerns about long-term sustainability and economic stability.

What’s Next?

The future landscape will likely see intensified policy responses from Western nations, with potential escalation of tariffs and trade restrictions. Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs and the EU’s hardening stance suggest increasing trade tensions. However, experts warn that tariffs alone may not effectively address the imbalance. China faces its own challenges, including deflation risks and the need to transition from export-dependent growth to a consumption-driven economy. The global manufacturing landscape will likely continue to evolve, with implications for international trade relations, industrial policies, and economic growth strategies.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018