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Home News Macro

China’s Renminbi Hits 16-Month Low Amid Trump Tariff Fears and US Economic Strength

by Team Lumida
January 8, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Chinese Stock Surge: A Hedge Fund Headache?
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Key Takeaways:

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• Renminbi reaches 16-month low at Rmb7.33 against dollar
• Markets anticipating potential 60% tariffs under Trump administration
• PBoC maintaining steady fixing rate despite market pressure
• US economic strength driving dollar appreciation against Asian currencies

What Happened?

China’s renminbi has depreciated to its weakest level since September 2023, dropping 0.1% to Rmb7.33 against the dollar. This decline occurs despite the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) efforts to maintain stability through steady fixing rates. The currency is approaching the lower limit of its 2% daily trading band, pressured by strong US economic data and concerns about potential Trump administration tariffs reaching up to 60%.

Why It Matters?

This currency movement reflects deeper economic challenges and geopolitical tensions. China faces deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand, while the US shows economic resilience, potentially leading to slower Fed rate cuts than expected. The situation highlights China’s complex balancing act between maintaining currency stability and supporting economic growth. The PBoC’s limited options in managing these pressures could impact global trade dynamics and investment flows. The broader weakness in Asian currencies suggests regional economic implications.

What’s Next?

Markets will closely monitor several key factors: Trump’s inauguration and subsequent trade policies, PBoC’s response to currency pressure, and China’s stimulus measures. The central bank’s ability to defend the renminbi while managing deflationary pressures will be crucial. Investors should watch for potential expansion of consumer subsidy programs and other stimulus measures. The interaction between US monetary policy and China’s economic management will continue to influence currency markets. The PBoC’s tolerance for further currency weakness and its capacity to prevent disorderly market movements will be critical factors in the near term.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018