Key Takeaways
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- China’s exports rose 8.3% year-over-year in September to $328.6 billion, the highest monthly total in 2025 and exceeding forecasts.
- Exports to the U.S. plunged 27% amid tariffs, but strong growth in other regions like the EU, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America offset the decline.
- China’s diversified export markets and competitiveness have limited the impact of U.S. tariffs so far, strengthening Beijing’s negotiating position.
- Imports grew 7.4%, pushing China’s trade surplus to $90.5 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year.
- China’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened slightly despite reduced purchases of American goods like soybeans.
- The export resilience supports China’s domestic economy amid deflation and housing market challenges.
- Upcoming economic data and trade talks will be closely watched amid ongoing tensions and tariff threats.
What happened?
China’s exports surged in September, defying expectations and demonstrating resilience despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. While shipments to the U.S. have sharply declined due to tariffs, China has successfully expanded sales to other global markets, including the European Union, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This diversification has helped offset the impact of U.S. tariffs and maintain strong export growth.
Imports also rose significantly, contributing to a growing trade surplus. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased slightly, even as Beijing reduced purchases of certain American goods. The strong export performance provides a boost to China’s economy, which faces deflationary pressures and a struggling housing market.
Why it matters
China’s ability to sustain export growth despite U.S. tariffs strengthens its bargaining power in trade negotiations. The resilience of non-U.S. markets reduces China’s vulnerability to American trade measures and supports its broader economic stability. This dynamic complicates efforts by the U.S. to pressure China through tariffs and may influence the tone and outcomes of upcoming trade talks.
What’s next?
Investors should monitor China’s third-quarter economic data due October 20 and the progress of trade negotiations ahead of the November 10 tariff truce expiration. The trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations, tariff policies, and China’s export diversification strategy will be key factors shaping global trade and market sentiment.
