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Home News Markets

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Markets Pivot Focus to Economic Data and Trump Policies

by Team Lumida
January 30, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Sticky Inflation Shakes Markets: What’s Next for Interest Rates?
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Key Takeaways:

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• Fed maintains rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with markets reducing odds of March rate cut to 13%
• Treasury yields fall ~2 basis points across curve, with 10-year rate at 4.50%
• Markets now pricing full rate cut by July, with 67% probability of second cut by year-end
• ECB expected to cut rates by 25 basis points amid European economic contraction

What Happened?

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in its latest meeting, offering limited guidance on future policy moves. Treasury yields declined across the curve as investors shifted focus to upcoming economic data. Markets are now showing reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, with March cut probability falling to 13% from 25%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is poised for a 25 basis point cut as European economic data shows stagnation.

Why It Matters?

This development marks a significant shift in market expectations and monetary policy dynamics. The Fed’s cautious stance, coupled with uncertainty around Trump’s economic policies, is creating a new paradigm for interest rates. The divergence between Fed and ECB approaches highlights the different economic challenges facing the US and Europe. This environment suggests a “recalibration of rates” rather than a traditional economic cycle, potentially impacting investment strategies and market dynamics.

What’s Next?

Markets will closely monitor upcoming US GDP data and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for policy direction cues. Key focus areas include the impact of Trump’s trade policies, particularly potential tariffs, on inflation and growth. The contrast between US and European monetary policy could lead to significant currency market movements. Investors should watch for signs of labor market softening or inflation surprises that could trigger earlier Fed action, while maintaining awareness of the broader shift toward a “higher rates for longer” environment.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018