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Fed Records Reveal Economic Impact of Trump’s First Trade War as New Tariff Threats Loom

by Team Lumida
January 29, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Fed Official Warns of Inflation Risks Under Trump Presidency

"Donald Trump" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

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Key Takeaways:

Powered by lumidawealth.com
• 2019 tariffs led to 43,000 lost factory jobs and $8.2 billion reduction in real income
• Fed cut rates in response to trade war’s negative impact on growth
• New tariff proposals could affect $3.2 trillion in imports, versus $370 billion in 2019
• Fed faces complex balance between inflation and growth concerns

What Happened?

Recently released Federal Reserve transcripts from 2019 reveal that Trump’s previous tariffs caused significant economic disruption, leading to manufacturing job losses, reduced business investment, and slower growth. The Fed responded with interest rate cuts to counter these negative effects, despite the administration’s claims of tariff benefits. The documents show Fed officials were particularly concerned about trade uncertainty’s impact on business investment and employment.

Why It Matters?

This historical context is crucial as Trump proposes even broader tariffs for 2025. While the 2019 tariffs affected $370 billion in Chinese imports, new proposals could impact $3.2 trillion in goods. The Fed faces a more complex challenge today with inflation still above target, unlike 2019’s low-inflation environment. The experience suggests tariffs might hurt growth more than drive inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to balance price stability against economic growth.

What’s Next?

Watch for Fed’s response to potential new tariffs, particularly given current inflation concerns. Key indicators to monitor include business investment, manufacturing employment, and inflation expectations. The Fed may need to consider rate cuts if growth significantly slows, despite inflation concerns. Markets should prepare for potential volatility as policy uncertainty increases. The implementation timeline and scope of new tariffs will be crucial factors in determining economic impact and Fed response.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018