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Fed Signals Shift: Jerome Powell’s Big Announcement

by Team Lumida
July 16, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways

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  1. Powell indicates rate cuts could be imminent but offers no specific timeline.
  2. Inflation and economic activity are cooling as expected, supporting potential rate cuts.
  3. Investors anticipate a rate cut in September following recent economic data.

What Happened?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., confirmed that inflation and economic activity have slowed as expected. This aligns with the Federal Reserve’s projections, increasing confidence that inflation will return to its 2% target.

However, Powell refrained from committing to a rate cut at the upcoming July 30-31 meeting. Investors are now eyeing the Fed’s September meeting for potential rate reductions, especially after June’s mild inflation readings. Labor-market conditions have also cooled, which further supports the case for lowering interest rates.

Why It Matters?

Understanding Powell’s statements is crucial for your investment strategy. A rate cut can stimulate economic activity by lowering borrowing costs, potentially boosting consumer spending and corporate investments. On the flip side, if the Fed moves too quickly, it risks inflation settling above its target, which could hurt long-term economic stability. Powell’s cautious approach aims to balance these risks.

Inflation has dropped to around 2.5% from over 4%, signaling that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes over the past year are working. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warns that holding rates steady may inadvertently tighten policy too much as inflation drops.

What’s Next?

Investors should watch for the Fed’s actions in September. While Powell did not rule out a July rate cut, the probability remains low, especially after his recent comments. The Fed’s next moves will likely hinge on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and employment reports. If these indicators continue to show improvement, a rate cut in September becomes more likely.

Pay attention to labor market trends and further inflation data, as these will be key factors influencing the Fed’s decisions. Keeping an eye on Fed statements and economic indicators will help you make informed investment decisions in this evolving landscape.

Source: Wall Street Journal
Tags: Federal Reserve
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018