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Home News Markets

Global Investors Dismiss US Treasury ‘Death Spiral’ Fears, Continue Strong Investment

by Team Lumida
January 16, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Photo by Dimitris Chapsoulas on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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• Foreign investors hold $7.33 trillion in US debt, near record levels
• Global funds cite high yields and market liquidity as key attractions
• Incoming Treasury Secretary’s deficit reduction plans boost confidence
• Japanese investors earned 12% returns on unhedged Treasury investments in 2024

What Happened?

Despite warnings of a potential “death spiral” in US Treasury markets, major global investors are maintaining their strong positions in US debt securities. Foreign funds currently hold $7.33 trillion in long-term US debt, just below the record $7.43 trillion reached in September 2024. Major institutional investors, including Europe’s largest money manager and Asian pension funds, continue to express confidence in US Treasuries despite an historic bear market.

Why It Matters?

This sustained international confidence is crucial for US debt markets, as foreign investors hold about one-third of outstanding Treasury securities. The continued investment reflects several key factors: significant yield premiums over other markets, unmatched market liquidity, and dollar strength benefits. The nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, with his focus on deficit reduction, has further bolstered investor confidence. This global backing helps maintain stability in US government financing despite record deficit levels.

What’s Next?

Markets will closely watch the new administration’s fiscal policies and Bessent’s confirmation hearing. While some investors express caution over growing US debt levels, most anticipate an orderly adjustment in Treasury yields. Key factors to monitor include the implementation of deficit reduction plans, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve policies. Japanese and European investors particularly remain optimistic, though some are shifting toward shorter-duration holdings. The market’s response to upcoming Treasury issuances and deficit management strategies will be crucial for future yield movements and international investment flows.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018