- Hormuz traffic picked up for the first time since Iran’s recent attacks, with approximately 24 commodity ships — oil tankers, LNG carriers, and bulk carriers — transiting in both directions on Monday per Kpler tracking data, followed by supertankers re-entering on Tuesday.
- Three Sinokor (South Korea) supertankers sailed empty into the Persian Gulf on Monday along Oman’s coast; a fourth began broadcasting from inside the gulf en route to Iraq’s Basrah; five VLCCs and one Suezmax have now entered, representing approximately 11 million barrels of crude-lifting capacity.
- Saudi Arabia’s Bahri (National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia) sent its supertanker Nisalah inbound — currently positioned off Ras Tanura, home to the world’s largest oil refinery — as the kingdom moves to resume export capacity constrained since the war began in late February.
- At least one vessel — a 2026-built Greek-operated Suezmax making its first Persian Gulf entry since the war began — appears to have transited with its AIS transponder switched off and is now idling off Ras Al-Khaimah waiting for orders, signaling that some shipowners are still navigating cautiously despite the ceasefire.
What Happened?
Hormuz shipping traffic rebounded Monday and Tuesday following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with approximately 24 commodity ships transiting in both directions on Monday per Kpler data — the first meaningful recovery since Iran attacked a container ship Thursday, triggering the latest round of tit-for-tat strikes before both sides agreed to halt hostilities. Three Sinokor supertankers entered the Persian Gulf empty Monday, broadcasting their position along Oman’s coast; a fourth began signaling from inside the gulf, indicating a heading toward Iraq’s Basrah oil terminal. Saudi Arabia’s Bahri supertanker Nisalah made an inbound transit and is now positioned off Ras Tanura. Combined, five VLCCs and one Suezmax entering the gulf represent approximately 11 million barrels of crude-lifting capacity.
Why It Matters?
The return of supertankers to the Persian Gulf is the single most important operational signal for global oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz carried 20% of the world’s oil before the war began in late February, and the region’s largest producers — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE — have been severely constrained in their ability to export. Empty supertankers entering the gulf are the precursor to loaded tankers exiting with crude; the volume and pace of that movement over the coming days will determine how quickly Gulf oil output returns to world markets and whether oil prices stabilize at current levels or continue declining.
What’s Next?
Doha peace talks are the political backdrop against which shipping operators are making live commercial decisions. Several vessels are broadcasting cautiously or running with transponders off — suggesting confidence is partial, not complete. Iran’s claim of sole Hormuz management authority and unresolved disputes over potential transit fees remain structural risks. If Doha talks produce a durable framework, the pace of supertanker entries could accelerate significantly; a breakdown could see the same vessels reversing course before they load a single barrel.
Source: Bloomberg
