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Market Veteran Howard Marks Signals Potential Stock Bubble as US Equity Enthusiasm Reaches New Heights

by Team Lumida
January 9, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

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• Record $1.1 trillion flowed into US-listed ETFs in 2024
• S&P 500 trades at 22x forward earnings, a level seen only in 1998-2000 and 2020-2021
• Professional investors show record-high allocations to US stocks
• Magnificent 7 stocks receive 81% buy recommendations despite high valuations

What Happened?

Howard Marks, in his latest memo “On Bubble Watch,” draws concerning parallels between current market conditions and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. The market shows signs of excessive optimism, with US stocks delivering approximately 17% annual returns since 2009 and experiencing only two negative years. This performance has led to record ETF inflows, historically high valuations, and unprecedented investor confidence in US equities, particularly in the Magnificent 7 tech stocks.

Why It Matters?

This widespread belief in perpetually rising US stocks could signal dangerous market conditions. The combination of high valuations, concentrated market leadership, and near-unanimous bullish sentiment mirrors previous bubble conditions. Historical evidence from various international markets shows that stocks can underperform for extended periods, challenging the popular “stocks always go up” narrative. The current market environment suggests potentially diminished upside and escalated risks.

What’s Next?

Investors should consider rebalancing portfolios toward less popular investments. Treasury notes yielding 4.7% and emerging market equities offer diversification opportunities. Watch for any signs of weakness in the Magnificent 7 stocks, as their outsized index weight could trigger broader market declines. Key indicators to monitor include changes in ETF flows, institutional positioning, and any shift in market leadership. The prudent approach may be reducing exposure to US equities while they remain popular, rather than waiting for sentiment to turn negative.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018