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Novo Nordisk Forecasts Slower Growth as Weight-Loss Drug Competition Intensifies

by Team Lumida
February 5, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Novo Nordisk Q2 2024 Earnings Highlights
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Key Takeaways:

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• 2025 sales growth forecast of 16-24%, down from 26% in 2024
• Q4 Wegovy sales reached DKK 19.87 billion, slightly missing expectations
• CagriSema regulatory filing delayed to Q1 2026
• Operating profit growth projected at 19-27% for 2025

What Happened?

Novo Nordisk reported strong Q4 2024 results with net profit rising 29% to DKK 28.23 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. However, the company projects slower growth for 2025 due to manufacturing capacity constraints and increasing market competition. The company’s blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy slightly missed sales expectations, while diabetes drug Ozempic performed in line with forecasts. Additionally, the regulatory filing for next-generation obesity drug CagriSema has been pushed back to Q1 2026.

Why It Matters?

This forecast adjustment signals a potential shift in the rapidly growing weight-loss drug market. Despite maintaining market leadership, Novo Nordisk faces mounting challenges from competitors like Eli Lilly and ongoing production constraints. The delay in CagriSema’s regulatory filing, combined with recent disappointing trial results, suggests the company’s next-generation product pipeline may face hurdles in maintaining its market dominance. The company’s substantial investment in manufacturing capacity, including the $11 billion Catalent acquisition, demonstrates its commitment to addressing supply constraints.

What’s Next?

Key developments to watch include the expansion of manufacturing capacity, the outcome of CagriSema’s diabetes trial results in Q1 2025, and the evolution of market competition. Investors should monitor pricing pressures, supply chain improvements, and the company’s ability to maintain market share as competitors enter the space. The performance of experimental drugs like Amycretin and the success of production capacity expansion efforts will be crucial for long-term growth prospects. The company’s ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining profitability will be critical for its market position in the expanding weight-loss drug sector.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018