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Shell Warns of Q4 Earnings Drop Due to Gas Division Weakness and $1.3B Emissions Charge

by Team Lumida
January 8, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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low angle photography of Shell gas station at night

Photo by Marc Rentschler on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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• Integrated gas division expects significant earnings decline from Q3’s $2.87B
• $1.3B charge for emissions permits in Germany and U.S.
• Gas production reduced to 880,000-920,000 barrels/day from previous quarter
• LNG volumes expected to drop to 6.8-7.2 million metric tons

What Happened?

Shell has issued a warning about its fourth-quarter performance, highlighting a substantial decline in its integrated gas division earnings due to expiring hedging contracts. The company faces a $1.3 billion charge related to emissions permit payments in Germany and the U.S. Production volumes have been revised downward, particularly affected by scheduled maintenance at a Qatar facility, while LNG volumes are expected to decrease from the previous quarter’s 7.5 million tons.

Why It Matters?

This forecast signals broader challenges in the energy sector’s transition period. The significant emissions permit charge reflects the growing financial impact of environmental regulations on major energy companies. The decline in gas division earnings, coupled with production challenges, suggests potential vulnerability in Shell’s core business segments. According to Jefferies analysts, while lower oil prices and refining margins are affecting the entire sector, higher gas prices may provide some cushioning effect, with an expected 3% earnings decline across European oil and gas peers.

What’s Next?

Investors should monitor Shell’s ability to navigate these challenges in upcoming quarters. Key areas to watch include the company’s strategy to address production constraints, particularly in Qatar, and its approach to managing future emissions-related costs. The maintenance of the $5.50 per barrel refining margin suggests some stability in downstream operations. The impact of hedging contract expirations and their replacement strategies will be crucial for future earnings stability. Long-term focus should be on Shell’s adaptation to increasing environmental regulations and its ability to maintain profitability while managing transition risks.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018