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Tesla’s Record Valuation Faces Reality Check as EV Sales Drop for First Time

by Team Lumida
January 3, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Photo by Tesla Fans Schweiz on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:

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• Q4 deliveries miss estimates at 495,570 vehicles, down 3% from expectations
• First annual sales decline recorded with 1.79M deliveries in 2024
• Stock trades at 117x forward earnings, triple Nvidia’s multiple
• Over 50% of analysts rate stock as sell or hold

What Happened?

Tesla reported disappointing Q4 delivery numbers, missing analyst estimates by 3% with 495,570 vehicles delivered. The company recorded its first-ever annual sales decline, with 2024 deliveries falling to 1.79 million from 1.81 million in 2023. Despite this operational challenge, Tesla’s stock soared 63% in 2024, though it dropped 6.1% on the delivery news, highlighting the disconnect between fundamental performance and market valuation.

Why It Matters?

This performance gap raises questions about Tesla’s $1.2 trillion valuation, which exceeds the combined worth of the next 20 largest automakers. The company’s rich valuation appears largely driven by AI potential and post-election momentum rather than current business fundamentals. With automotive revenue representing 80% of total revenue, the sales decline challenges the sustainability of Tesla’s premium valuation, especially compared to established AI leaders like Nvidia.

What’s Next?

Watch for Tesla’s execution on AI and self-driving technology milestones in 2025. Key areas to monitor: progress in full self-driving software development, robotaxi business launch timeline, competitive dynamics in the EV market, and potential valuation adjustments. Analysts suggest roughly $1 trillion of Tesla’s value is priced for future revenue streams, creating significant pressure to deliver on AI promises. Investors should focus on both operational metrics and technology development progress, particularly given the historical pattern of stock pressure when valuations significantly exceed fundamentals.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018