- Trump abruptly reversed his Thursday morning threat to launch new strikes on Iran and seize oil infrastructure, declaring a deal was “close” and that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off — Iran’s Foreign Ministry flatly denied a final decision had been made.
- Markets moved sharply on the whipsaw: crude oil fell to ~$84.70/barrel (-3.4%), US equity futures rose, and gold climbed 2.8%, reflecting investor uncertainty about whether peace is real or another false start.
- A Qatari diplomatic delegation returned from Tehran with new language for a draft memorandum of understanding; Trump said a signing ceremony in Europe could happen as soon as this weekend, with VP JD Vance potentially attending.
- Key sticking points — Iran’s demand for access to tens of billions in frozen funds, Trump’s demand for destruction of enriched uranium stockpiles, and the Hormuz blockade — remain formally unresolved despite the optimistic signals.
What Happened?
In a stunning intraday reversal, President Trump walked back his Thursday morning threats to resume bombing Iran and seize Kharg Island — which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports — after receiving word that Tehran had moved closer to his nuclear demands. Hours earlier he had explicitly threatened military strikes and promised the US would “assume total control” of Iran’s oil infrastructure. By the afternoon, he told reporters the documents were “in pretty final shape,” that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off, and that the Strait of Hormuz “will officially open as soon as we sign.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that no final decision had been made. Qatar’s leader confirmed only that mediation had “led to progress.”
Why It Matters?
Markets are being whipsawed by Trump’s negotiating style — threatening escalation in the morning and declaring victory by the afternoon. Crude oil’s sharp drop to $84.70 reflects deal optimism, but the same playbook has played out multiple times since the April ceasefire, with each apparent breakthrough followed by renewed skirmishes. The core unresolved issues remain substantial: Iran wants tens of billions in frozen assets released immediately, while Trump demands the destruction of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Republican hawks in Congress, led by Sen. Lindsey Graham, are already warning any deal must be fundamentally different from the 2015 JCPOA and will require congressional review. A signing this weekend would represent a memorandum of understanding — not a final agreement — leaving the hard nuclear negotiations ahead.
What’s Next?
The next 48–72 hours are the most consequential since the April ceasefire. If a memorandum of understanding is signed in Europe with VP Vance attending, it would unlock a ceasefire extension and potentially reopen Hormuz — a major positive shock for oil markets and global inflation. If the deal collapses again, the next escalation cycle begins from a higher baseline of hostility. Energy consultants warn Brent crude surges to $150 if Hormuz stays effectively shut through August. Traders will be watching oil prices, tanker traffic data, and official statements from Tehran and Doha for real-time signals on whether this reversal is genuine.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
