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Trump’s 40% Tariff Threat for Transshipped Goods Lacks Key Details

by Team Lumida
August 1, 2025
in Macro
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Trump Delays Reciprocal Tariffs to August 1, Citing Progress in Trade Negotiations
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Key Takeaways:

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  • New 40% Tariff Threat: President Trump has announced a potential 40% penalty tariff on goods “transshipped” through third countries to dodge U.S. duties, mainly targeting Chinese exports.
  • Implementation Unclear: The U.S. has not yet defined the “rules of origin” that would determine what counts as transshipped, leaving countries and companies uncertain about compliance.
  • Southeast Asia in Focus: Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and others—now major suppliers to the U.S. after firms shifted from China—are awaiting clarification, as many still rely on Chinese inputs.
  • Negotiation and Enforcement Challenges: U.S. officials say rules will be set in coming weeks, but enforcement is expected to be difficult and may not significantly curb China’s export flows.
  • Trade Talks Impact: The move complicates ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with China likely to see the rule as a direct threat to its interests.

What Happened?

The White House announced a sweeping new tariff regime, including a 40% penalty for goods deemed to be rerouted through other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs. While the measure is aimed at closing loopholes used by Chinese exporters, the lack of clear rules on what constitutes “transshipment” has left trading partners and manufacturers in limbo. Southeast Asian nations, which have become key U.S. suppliers as companies diversify away from China, are especially concerned, since many of their exports still contain significant Chinese content.

Officials in countries like Thailand are pushing for local content thresholds to define origin, but no agreement has been reached. The U.S. says details will be finalized soon, but the uncertainty is already complicating supply chain planning and trade negotiations.


Why It Matters?

The new tariff threat underscores the complexity of global supply chains and the challenges of enforcing trade barriers in a world where production is highly interconnected. Without clear rules, companies face uncertainty and risk, while the effectiveness of the tariffs in curbing Chinese exports remains questionable. The move also risks escalating tensions in U.S.-China trade talks and could disrupt established supply routes in Asia.


What’s Next?

Watch for the U.S. to release detailed “rules of origin” in the coming weeks, which will determine how the 40% tariff is enforced. Monitor responses from Southeast Asian governments and the impact on U.S.-China trade negotiations as the tariff truce deadline approaches. Companies with complex Asian supply chains should prepare for potential disruptions and compliance challenges.

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Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018