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U.S.-China Economic War Escalates, Threatening Global Trade and Growth

by Team Lumida
April 11, 2025
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Key Takeaways:

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  • President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods now total 145%, with trade between the U.S. and China grinding to a halt, disrupting $582 billion in annual goods trade.
  • U.S. businesses face higher costs, canceled orders, and supply chain disruptions, while Chinese manufacturers are halting production and laying off workers.
  • The trade war risks pushing the U.S. into a recession, with JPMorgan predicting economic contraction later this year, and could shave 1.5-2 percentage points off China’s GDP growth in 2025.
  • American consumers are likely to face higher prices and reduced product availability, while China’s export-driven economy faces pressure to pivot toward domestic consumption.

What Happened?

The U.S.-China trade war has entered a new phase, with President Trump imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods while pausing duties on other nations. The escalating tariffs have disrupted trans-Pacific trade, with U.S. factories canceling orders and Chinese manufacturers halting production.

U.S. businesses reliant on Chinese imports, such as kitchenware and furniture makers, are struggling to absorb higher costs, leading to layoffs, canceled investments, and reduced product offerings. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters, heavily dependent on U.S. demand, are shutting down factories and grappling with canceled orders.

The trade war has also roiled financial markets, with sharp declines in stock and bond markets as investors digest the economic fallout.


Why It Matters?

The U.S.-China economic decoupling threatens to reshape global trade and supply chains, with profound implications for businesses, consumers, and economies worldwide. For the U.S., tariffs act as a tax on imports, raising prices for consumers and businesses while creating uncertainty that stifles investment.

China, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S., faces significant economic challenges, including job losses and deflationary pressures. The trade war could force China to pivot away from its export-driven growth model toward domestic consumption, requiring costly reforms to its social safety net and local governments.

The broader global economy is also at risk, as the trade war disrupts supply chains, reduces trade volumes, and dampens economic growth.


What’s Next?

The U.S. and China remain locked in a tit-for-tat escalation, with no clear resolution in sight. U.S. businesses will need to adapt by diversifying supply chains and exploring alternative markets, while Chinese manufacturers face pressure to find new buyers or scale back production.

Policymakers in both countries will need to weigh the economic and political costs of the trade war, with the potential for further retaliatory measures on both sides. The global economy will continue to feel the ripple effects, with heightened uncertainty and slower growth likely in the near term.

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Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018