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Home News Macro

US Economy Cools: Jobless Claims Drop, Housing Starts Falters

by Team Lumida
June 21, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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shallow focus photography of red and white for hire signage

Photo by Clem Onojeghuo on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways

  1. Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 238,000.
  2. Housing starts dropped 5.5% in May, the lowest since June 2020.
  3. Economic indicators suggest potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September and December.

What Happened?

First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 238,000 for the week ending June 15, reversing a third of the previous week’s surge. Continuing claims rose by 15,000 to 1.828 million.

Housing starts dropped 5.5% in May to an annual rate of 1.277 million units, the lowest since June 2020. Building permits also fell by 3.8%. These figures indicate a moderate level of economic activity in the second quarter.

Why It Matters?

These declines in both jobless claims and housing starts suggest that the economy might be slowing down. Higher borrowing costs and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy could impact your investments. Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica, notes, “Soft activity and labor market data reinforce expectations for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in a few months.”

This aligns with financial markets’ anticipation of rate cuts despite the Fed’s more hawkish stance. Lower rates could provide relief to borrowers and stimulate economic activity but might also signal underlying economic weaknesses.

What’s Next?

Expectations are building for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, potentially as soon as September, followed by another in December. Investors should watch for upcoming data on continuing claims and the nonfarm payrolls component of June’s employment report for further clues on labor market health.

Housing market trends, especially mortgage rates, will also be crucial to monitor. Economists at Goldman Sachs have already reduced their GDP growth estimate for Q2 to 1.9%, reflecting these economic headwinds. Stay tuned for more indicators to gauge how these trends will affect your portfolio and broader market dynamics.

Source: Reuters
Tags: Housing startsJobless claims
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018