- Iran reversed course hours before talks were set to begin in Islamabad, pulling its delegation at the last minute as Air Force Two sat idle at Joint Base Andrews waiting for VP Vance — prompting Trump to ask aides whether the US should resume airstrikes on Iran.
- Trump ultimately chose a middle path: extend the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the naval blockade of Iranian ports, telling aides to wait for Iran to make a concrete offer before deciding whether to negotiate or strike again.
- Iran’s last-minute pullback reflected hardline IRGC pressure — conservative factions argued publicly that Iran “cannot accept negotiations under the shadow of threats,” especially with US forces actively seizing Iranian-flagged ships.
- Despite the breakdown, mediators and officials familiar with the talks say both sides have been quietly engaging on possible frameworks around uranium enrichment, enriched uranium stockpiles, and Hormuz reopening — suggesting a deal remains theoretically possible.
What Happened?
In a day of frenzied White House meetings, US-Iran negotiations collapsed before they even began. Pakistani mediators had confirmed that Iran’s team would travel to Islamabad on Tuesday — but with Trump’s ceasefire deadline approaching, Tehran reversed course. Air Force Two sat idle at Joint Base Andrews for most of the day as Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff waited. By early afternoon, Vance’s trip was paused. By evening, it was delayed indefinitely. Inside the White House, Trump asked aides directly whether the US should resume its bombing campaign against Iran. Officials counseled caution, noting the war is deeply unpopular with the American public and that Iran’s internal divisions — between pragmatist President Pezeshkian and hardline IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi — mean Tehran may not be in a position to negotiate and stick to any deal even if it wanted to. Trump ultimately extended the ceasefire while keeping the blockade in place, conditioning any future talks on Iran making a concrete first move.
Why It Matters?
The collapse is a significant escalation in the diplomatic impasse, and it reveals the structural fragility of this negotiation. Iran’s government is not a unified actor: Foreign Minister Araghchi and President Pezeshkian are inclined toward a deal, but the IRGC — which controls military assets and has a history of undermining diplomatic openings — is pushing for a hardline stance. The US naval blockade, intended to strip Iran of its Hormuz leverage, has paradoxically made it politically harder for Iranian moderates to sit down at the table without appearing to capitulate. Meanwhile, Trump faces his own domestic pressure: gas above $4 a gallon, a war that has lasted longer than his initial four-to-six week projection, and polls showing most Americans disapprove of the conflict. Both sides are caught in a leverage-seeking exercise where each escalation makes the next negotiating step politically harder to take.
What’s Next?
Vance’s trip is now delayed indefinitely, though Trump privately discussed canceling it entirely. The US is waiting for Iran to make a concrete offer — a framework that keeps maximum pressure in place but avoids restarting active hostilities. Benchmark oil futures jumped 9% this week to $98.48 a barrel as peace talks stalled, reflecting just how much the market is pricing in a prolonged impasse. The blockade — which has turned away 28 vessels since April 13 — could strip Iran of up to $300 million in daily export revenue if fully enforced, but analysts warn Iran has demonstrated a capacity to withstand economic strangulation. The next 72 hours will be critical: if Iran sends even an informal signal of willingness to talk, Vance could still travel. If not, Trump faces the choice of resuming strikes or accepting a frozen conflict with no resolution in sight.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
