- Trump confirmed JD Vance — joined by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff — will travel to Islamabad for a second round of US-Iran talks starting “Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,” but Iran has not confirmed who, if anyone, will represent it at the table.
- The two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday evening Washington time, and Trump has signaled he won’t extend it — while threatening strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure if diplomacy fails and vowing the naval blockade stays “until a deal is signed.”
- Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said his country won’t “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats,” and IRGC leader Ahmad Vahidi is pushing for a hardline stance — reflecting a deep internal divide between Iran’s pragmatic diplomats and its revolutionary military establishment.
- Brent crude fell ~1% to $94.40 on news that Iran may send a team to Islamabad, but oil remains roughly a third more expensive than before the war began in February — and US gas prices have surpassed $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years.
What Happened?
The US is making halting progress toward a second round of peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, but the path remains deeply uncertain. Trump confirmed that Vice President Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff will travel to the Pakistani capital, with negotiations expected to begin as early as Tuesday night. Tehran, however, has not officially confirmed its delegation, and Iranian officials have been careful to stop short of both confirming and ruling out participation. The backdrop is fraught: the US recently seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska after it defied warnings for hours, deepening Iranian distrust. The two-week ceasefire — which has mostly held since a month of open conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran — expires Wednesday evening, and Trump has made clear he is unlikely to extend it without visible diplomatic progress.
Why It Matters?
The stakes of this round of talks could not be higher. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG exports flowed before the war — remains effectively shut. Brent crude is trading around $94 a barrel, about a third above pre-war levels. US gasoline prices have crossed $4 a gallon, a politically toxic threshold for a president who campaigned on lowering consumer costs. Trump is also running into a credibility problem of his own making: he repeatedly suggested the conflict was nearly over during a war that has now stretched well past his initial four-to-six-week projection. Domestically, polls show most Americans disapprove of the conflict. Internationally, Iran’s internal divisions — between pragmatist president Pezeshkian and hardline IRGC chief Vahidi — mean that even if diplomats reach a preliminary deal in Islamabad, it may not hold against revolutionary guard resistance.
What’s Next?
The immediate focus is whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad at all before Wednesday’s ceasefire deadline. One possible off-ramp is a narrow preliminary agreement to reopen Hormuz and lift the US blockade, deferring harder nuclear and missile program issues to later talks — a face-saving structure that both sides could theoretically accept without full capitulation. If no deal materializes by Wednesday, Trump faces a choice: extend the ceasefire despite signaling he won’t, or resume hostilities with all the attendant oil price and geopolitical consequences. Energy markets, already on edge, will be watching every signal from Islamabad closely.
Source: Bloomberg
