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Home News Macro

Why Goldman Sachs is More Optimistic About the US Economy Now

by Team Lumida
August 18, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Goldman Sachs Urges Investors to Cut Risk: Is a Selloff Looming?

Source: LeapRate

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Key Takeaways

Powered by lumidawealth.com

  1. Goldman Sachs reduces US recession risk from 25% to 20%.
  2. Strong retail sales and job growth drive optimism.
  3. Investors should watch for continued economic resilience.

What Happened?

Goldman Sachs has revised its US recession risk estimate, lowering it from 25% to 20%. This adjustment comes on the heels of robust retail sales and job growth data. The latest figures show retail sales surged by 1.6% in the past month, significantly outpacing the forecasted 0.7%.

Additionally, the US economy added 300,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 200,000. This positive economic data prompted Goldman Sachs to reassess the likelihood of a recession.

Why It Matters?

This shift in outlook from Goldman Sachs is significant for investors. Lower recession risk suggests a more resilient US economy, which can boost market confidence. Strong retail sales indicate healthy consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth.

The impressive job numbers also suggest that the labor market remains robust, which can lead to increased consumer spending and investment. Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated, “The recent data points to a stronger-than-expected economic performance, reducing the probability of a downturn.”

What’s Next?

Investors should monitor upcoming economic indicators closely. Continued strength in retail sales and job growth could further diminish recession fears. The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions will also play a crucial role in shaping the economic landscape. If the Fed maintains a dovish stance, it could support ongoing economic growth.

Conversely, any tightening could impact consumer spending and job growth. Keep an eye on quarterly earnings reports, as strong corporate performance could bolster market sentiment. The evolving economic scenario underscores the importance of staying informed and agile in your investment strategy.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Inflation
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018