- Saudi Arabia is pressing the U.S. to end its Hormuz blockade, warning Iran could retaliate by ordering Houthi allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb — the Red Sea chokepoint now handling Saudi oil exports rerouted around the war
- The Houthis have the capability and stated willingness to shut the second chokepoint, having already halved traffic through it during the Gaza conflict
- Saudi Arabia rerouted crude from Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf to its Yanbu Red Sea terminal after war began Feb. 28 — those exports now sit squarely in the Houthis’ crosshairs
- Despite the public standoff, Arab officials say both the U.S. and Iran remain open to resumed talks if each side shows enough flexibility during the two-week ceasefire window
What Happened?
Saudi Arabia is privately urging Washington to abandon its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warning the pressure campaign risks triggering Iran to activate its Houthi allies in Yemen against the Bab al-Mandeb — the Red Sea chokepoint that now handles Saudi Arabia’s rerouted oil exports. The blockade of Iranian ports took effect Monday after weekend peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours. Iran’s Hormuz closure has already cut off roughly 13 million barrels per day and pushed oil futures above $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia shifted crude flows via the Trans-Arabian Pipeline to its Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea after the war began Feb. 28 — but Riyadh now warns those routes are vulnerable. Iran’s supreme leader adviser made the threat explicit, saying Tehran looks at the Bab al-Mandeb “just as it looks at Hormuz.”
Why It Matters?
The Bab al-Mandeb is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and routing traffic toward the Suez Canal. Before the Gaza war disruptions, 9.3 million barrels per day passed through it. The Houthis already proved during that conflict they can cut that flow in half through sustained missile and drone attacks — and they remain equipped and motivated. Saudi Arabia secured assurances the Houthis would spare its ships, but Gulf officials warn those commitments are fluid if Iran gives the signal. A simultaneous Hormuz-Bab al-Mandeb shutdown would represent an unprecedented energy market shock with no comparable historical precedent, effectively trapping most Gulf crude with no viable exit route.
What’s Next?
Despite the public hard lines on both sides, Arab officials say the U.S. and Iran remain engaged with mediators and open to renewed talks if each side shows flexibility. The two-week ceasefire window is the critical opening. Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are scrambling to restart diplomacy before the window closes. If talks fail, a Houthi closure of the Bab al-Mandeb becomes the most likely Iranian escalation play — confronting the U.S. military with a costly second front in waters where it fought the Houthis to a brutal draw just one year ago.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
