- The S&P 500 rose 1% Monday, logging its eighth consecutive session of gains and its highest close since before the Iran war began — now up 0.6% for 2026
- Oracle surged 12% (top S&P performer), ServiceNow climbed 7%, and Adobe posted its best single-day gain in a year, driving the Nasdaq to its longest winning streak since 2023
- Brent crude closed at $99.36/barrel (+4.37%) after the U.S. Hormuz blockade began Monday morning — but futures markets signaled traders are less worried about supply stress persisting late in the year
- Goldman Sachs beat profit estimates but shares fell ~1.9% as some business lines disappointed — a cautionary note as the busiest week of bank earnings gets underway
What Happened?
Markets shrugged off the worst Iran-related headlines in weeks — peace talks collapsing in Islamabad, a full U.S. Hormuz blockade taking effect, oil briefly topping $100 — and kept climbing anyway. The S&P 500 gained 1% Monday to extend its winning streak to eight sessions, its longest since 2023 and its highest close since before the Feb. 28 start of the Iran conflict. Software stocks led the way: Oracle jumped over 12%, ServiceNow rose more than 7%, and Adobe posted its largest single-day percentage gain in a year. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF added 5.4%. The Dow gained 301 points; the Nasdaq rose 280. The Hormuz blockade — choking off roughly two million barrels per day of Iranian crude — pushed Brent to close at $99.36, though forward futures remained subdued, suggesting traders see the supply disruption as finite.
Why It Matters?
The market’s muted reaction to genuinely alarming geopolitical news reflects a structural shift in how investors are processing the Iran conflict. Early in the war, every headline triggered sharp moves. Now, after eight weeks of escalation, investors have de-risked their short-term exposures and are beginning to price the longer-term scenarios — including a diplomatic resolution that still looks possible within the two-week ceasefire window. The software stock surge is telling: AI-driven disruption fears hammered the sector earlier in the year, but analysts have now had time to separate winners from losers. Companies like Oracle and ServiceNow are being rewarded for concrete AI integration strategies. Goldman’s mixed earnings — beating profit but missing on some business lines — are a reminder that not everything will emerge unscathed from the war’s economic drag.
What’s Next?
This week is the busiest of early earnings season, with Bank of America, JPMorgan, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson all reporting. The results will test whether the pre-war economic tailwinds were strong enough to carry companies through the first quarter of the conflict. On the geopolitical side, the two-week ceasefire diplomacy window remains the dominant macro variable — any progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal would likely push equities sharply higher, while a breakdown could reverse recent gains quickly. For now, the message from markets is clear: the war is a “hassle,” as one CIO put it, but not yet a catastrophe — and investors are back to doing fundamental analysis.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
