- Bitcoin rose as much as 3.7% to $66,326 on Monday, hitting a two-week high, after the US and Iran announced a peace deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting broader market risk appetite.
- Ether jumped as much as 5.9% to $1,767, with Solana and XRP posting even larger gains as the deal sparked a broad crypto rally after Bitcoin had dipped below $60,000 earlier this month.
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced it bought another $100 million in Bitcoin last week, continuing its accumulation strategy after briefly selling a small fraction of its holdings in June.
- The Fed’s Wednesday meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh is the next major risk: markets expect a hawkish shift, and a surprise tightening signal could weigh on crypto.
What Happened?
Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday after President Trump announced that a peace agreement with Iran is “now complete,” including a US commitment to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The news sparked a broad risk-on rally: Ether surged nearly 6%, Solana and XRP gained even more, and European stocks climbed while Brent crude fell over 4%. The crypto move is a partial recovery from a difficult stretch — Bitcoin had slipped below $60,000 earlier this month, its lowest since October 2024, in a selloff partly triggered when Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed a small sale of its Bitcoin holdings. The company has since resumed buying, adding $100 million in BTC in each of the past two weeks through common share sales.
Why It Matters?
The rally is a test of what kind of asset Bitcoin has become. Through much of the Iran conflict, crypto traded like a high-beta risk asset — selling off alongside stocks as geopolitical uncertainty spiked, ETF outflows accelerated, and yields rose. The fact that the peace deal is now lifting Bitcoin confirms that dynamic: reduced macro risk supports the token. But the more nuanced read is whether Bitcoin can hold gains into a potentially hawkish Fed meeting Wednesday. A reduction in inflation risk from lower oil prices — one direct consequence of a Hormuz reopening — could actually give the Fed cover to stay on hold, which would be mildly supportive. But if Warsh signals a shift toward tightening, crypto could give back the gains quickly.
What’s Next?
Traders are watching $67,000 as the next key resistance level for Bitcoin, where a confluence of volume-weighted price levels and moving averages sits. The Fed decision Wednesday is the dominant near-term catalyst — markets are pricing in a hawkish tilt from Warsh, and any surprise on that front is the primary downside risk for crypto. Longer term, Strategy’s continued buying provides a consistent demand floor, though analysts note the firm’s position size and leverage remain a latent risk that markets are currently choosing to overlook.
Source: Bloomberg
