- The Treasury removed National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez from its sanctions list on Wednesday, lifting restrictions that barred Americans from doing business with him and froze assets under US jurisdiction. He is the brother of acting President Delcy Rodriguez, whose own sanctions were lifted on April 1. Both were designated in September 2018.
- Broader US sanctions on Venezuela remain. The delistings are proceeding individually, which makes each one a marker of where the relationship is heading rather than a general relief.
- The government led by Delcy Rodriguez has cooperated closely with Washington since the January 3 US military operation that ousted Nicolas Maduro, opening the oil industry to American investment, engaging in US-backed negotiations with the opposition and handing over several former Maduro allies wanted by US authorities.
- The political picture is unresolved. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remains sidelined from the talks despite leading presidential voting intentions with 52% in September’s LatAm Pulse poll by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News, against 19% for Delcy Rodriguez.
What Happened?
Jorge Rodriguez, 60, leads the government’s delegation in US-backed talks aimed at reforming institutions and laying groundwork for eventual elections, and has previously served as vice president, communications minister and head of the electoral authority. A new round of negotiations between the interim government and a sector of the opposition began Wednesday in Caracas, with earlier rounds focused on rebuilding the judiciary, recovering state assets abroad and easing restrictions on news websites. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week the talks need to end in free and democratic elections and that Washington wants a return to democracy as quickly as possible. Opposition delegation leader Dinorah Figuera said they would seek a clear road map toward a vote.
Why It Matters?
The polling gap is the risk that anyone committing capital to Venezuela should be pricing, and it is rarely stated plainly. American investment is being invited in by a government whose principal political opponent holds nearly three times its support and is excluded from the process intended to produce elections. Commercial arrangements negotiated with a transitional administration are not necessarily honoured by a successor with a popular mandate, particularly arrangements over natural resources reached while that successor was shut out. That applies directly to the mining commitments already announced, including up to $1 billion for the Choco gold mine over thirty years and a bid for operational control of the Venalum aluminium smelter, as well as to any oil investment. The individual delistings are the useful leading indicator. Washington is removing sanctions person by person while leaving the broader framework intact, which means each name lifted identifies a specific obstacle being cleared for specific transactions. Watching who is delisted, and when, gives a more accurate read on the direction of policy than statements about democracy do, and it has preceded commercial activity each time. Capital is already positioning: the first Venezuelan aluminium shipment to the US in nearly a decade arrived this month, and the newly chartered bank Erebor has explored providing services to jurisdictions where sanctions have recently eased, Venezuela included. The energy dimension connects to everything else. Venezuela opening its oil industry to American investment adds a potential source of supply at a moment when Brent trades above $105 and the administration has intervened in fuel markets four times in weeks, including a diesel arrangement with Russia that six Republican senators have asked it to rescind. Venezuelan production cannot be restored quickly, so this matters for 2028 rather than this winter, but the policy direction is consistent.
What Next?
The Caracas talks are the process to follow, and whether they produce a dated election road map is the test Rubio has set. Watch whether Machado is brought into the negotiations, since her exclusion is what makes any outcome contestable. Further individual delistings would signal continued normalisation, and any move on the broader sanctions framework would be the step that genuinely opens the economy. For investors, the sequence to watch is whether oil majors commit capital or wait for the political settlement, because their behaviour is the best available judgement on the durability of current arrangements.
Affected Tickers and Coins: CVX, COP, BZ
Source: Bloomberg
