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Accidental Landlords Pressure Single-Family Rental Returns

by Team Lumida
September 30, 2025
in News
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Key Takeaways

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  • A growing share of unsold for-sale homes is shifting to rentals (≈2.3% of listed homes this summer; >5% in some Sunbelt cities), adding supply and weighing on rent growth.
  • John Burns projects 2025 SFR rent growth of about 0.8% in the top 20 markets—the slowest since 2011—despite high occupancy and healthy rent-to-income metrics.
  • Sunbelt concentration risk is elevated for large SFR REITs; new-lease rents are falling in several TX/FL markets even as in-place rents rise, widening the gap and raising future churn risk.

What Happened?

Soft absorption in the for-sale market is spilling into rentals. Of 3.06 million homes listed at the start of summer, only 28% sold; roughly 1.96 million rolled into fall listings (+20% y/y), and 2.3% of listed homes converted to rentals. Sunbelt markets (Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Tampa, Charlotte) see the highest conversion and inventory, where major SFR landlords are concentrated. Invitation Homes reported negative new-lease rent growth in parts of TX/FL (e.g., Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Dallas) even as it increased renewals (e.g., +6.2% for in-place tenants in South Florida). Inventory in Dallas and Tampa is up 25% and 39% versus Aug 2019, respectively, with rental listings also elevated.

Why it matters

Rental supply “leakage” from the for-sale market compresses pricing power for large SFR portfolios, particularly in oversupplied Sunbelt corridors. Landlords are offsetting weaker new-lease rates by raising renewals, but widening spreads between in-place and market rents can incentivize tenant turnover, pressuring occupancy and NOI ahead. Public SFR names are underperforming the S&P 500 and also lagging multi-family REITs and homebuilders, reflecting rising risk to near-term same-home rent growth. Paradoxically, lower mortgage rates would help clear for-sale inventory (reducing rental leakage) but could also lift rental vacancies as tenants regain buying power. With transaction volumes at multi-decade lows and “shadow inventory” building via delistings-turned-rentals, the operating environment remains challenging despite a record renter base.

What’s next

Focus on market-level rent prints (new vs. renewal spreads), turnover and occupancy in Sunbelt-heavy portfolios; monitor listing inventory and rental postings in Dallas, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Phoenix and Houston. Watch management guidance on 2025 same-home NOI, renewal cadence, concessions, and capex for turn costs. Track mortgage-rate moves and for-sale absorption as key swing factors for rental supply. Portfolio diversification toward Midwest/West Coast markets showing healthier rent growth may mitigate concentration risk.

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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018