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Home News Macro

Are US Jobs Slowing Down? Key Insights for Investors

by Team Lumida
June 7, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Photo by Clem Onojeghuo on Unsplash

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Key Takeaways:
1. Payrolls likely rose by 180,000 in May, signaling a cooling labor market.
2. Wage growth remained at 3.9%, the slowest rate in three years.
3. Federal Reserve unlikely to alter interest rates based on this report.

What Happened?
Forecasters expect the US employment report for May to show a slowdown in job growth, with payrolls likely increasing by 180,000. This is a slight rebound from April’s 175,000 but still below the first-quarter average of 246,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release these figures on Friday. Wage growth is anticipated to stay at 3.9% year-over-year, matching April’s rate, the slowest in nearly three years. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 3.9%, with labor force participation holding at 62.7%.

Why It Matters?
This data suggests the US economy is cooling but not sharply enough to prompt immediate Federal Reserve action on interest rates. Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist at EY, noted, “The May jobs report is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its current wait-and-see posture.”

Lower job growth and stable wage increases indicate a shift towards a more balanced labor market, potentially easing inflationary pressures. Michael Gapen from Bank of America added, “We think the labor market is normalizing, not necessarily weakening.”

What’s Next?
Investors should monitor the labor market’s trajectory as it could impact consumer spending and inflation. With job openings decreasing and employment growth moderating, future reports will be crucial. Economists at Morgan Stanley suggest the economy needs to create 265,000 jobs monthly to match population growth, hinting at possible upward pressure on unemployment if hiring slows further.

Keep an eye on sectors like services and construction, which may benefit from immigration-driven workforce increases. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates will likely remain cautious, focusing on long-term economic balance rather than short-term fluctuations.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Federal ReserveUS job growthwage growth
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018