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Bank Earnings Preview: Key Metrics to Watch Today

by Team Lumida
July 12, 2024
in Markets
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bank Earnings Preview: Key Metrics to Watch Today

"Big Bank Money Grab" by Truthout.org is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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Key Takeaways

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  1. Major banks report earnings Friday; expect insights on unrealized losses and interest income.
  2. Commercial real estate and credit-card delinquencies are rising, impacting bank health.
  3. Investment-banking fees show signs of recovery, but not at 2021 levels.

What Happened?

This Friday, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will kick off the bank earnings season. Investors should scrutinize the results, especially given the $517 billion in unrealized losses banks carry on their balance sheets. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) has flagged these losses as unusually high for over two years.

These losses stem from the purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities during low-interest periods. Higher interest rates since 2022 have devalued these bonds. Analysts predict these losses will remain flat in Q2, as the 10-year Treasury yield stabilized.

Why It Matters?

Understanding the financial health of major banks can provide insights into the broader economic landscape. Unrealized losses are crucial because banks might need to sell assets at a loss if liquidity becomes an issue. Commercial real estate delinquencies are rising, especially affecting smaller banks that hold a higher proportion of such loans.

The plateau in interest rates is squeezing net interest income, as customers shift to interest-bearing accounts. Furthermore, rising credit-card delinquencies indicate potential consumer financial stress, impacting banks’ profitability.

What’s Next?

Look for further declines in net interest margins this quarter, as banks struggle to balance noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing deposits. Watch the liquidity levels of regional banks, which remain a weak link in the U.S. banking system. Analysts expect modest increases in credit-card delinquency rates, reflecting consumer financial strain.

However, investment-banking fees may offer a glimmer of hope. After a strong first quarter, expect a year-over-year increase in these fees as corporate borrowing costs decrease and dealmaking rebounds.

This earnings season will be a crucial indicator of the banking sector’s stability and its ripple effects on the broader economy. Investors should keep a close eye on these metrics to gauge future market movements and economic trends.

Source: Wall Street Journal
Tags: Bank earningsCitigroupFDICJPMorganWells Fargo
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018