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Inflation Surprises: Investors Bet on Fed Rate Cuts

by Team Lumida
July 12, 2024
in Macro
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Inflation Drops 0.1% in June: A Green Light for the Fed to Cut Rates?

Source: CNBC

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Key Takeaways

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  1. US inflation data boosts investor optimism for a Fed rate cut in September.
  2. Powell signals potential easing, shifting focus to employment metrics.
  3. Investors rotate from Big Tech to broader markets and gold.

What Happened?

The latest US inflation data has come in lower than expected, prompting increased speculation about an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Investors now anticipate the first rate cut as early as September. This optimism stems from June’s inflation figures, which showed a significant drop in both headline and core CPI, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s criteria for rate cuts.

The jobless rate at 4.1%—the highest since late 2021—also supports the potential for easing. The Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability indicates nearly 100% certainty of a Fed cut in September.

Why It Matters?

Lower inflation and higher unemployment create a compelling case for rate cuts, which could stimulate economic growth. For investors, this means potential shifts in market dynamics. Powell’s focus on employment metrics suggests the Fed may prioritize job growth over strict inflation targets.

This change in policy stance is crucial, as it influences bond yields, stock market performance, and sector rotations. Investors have already begun reallocating assets, moving away from Big Tech stocks and into smaller businesses and gold, indicating a broader market rally.

What’s Next?

Expect heightened market volatility as investors closely monitor upcoming employment and inflation data. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September will be pivotal. Should the next employment reports show further economic strain, a rate cut seems almost certain. A potential Fed rate cut could further depress the dollar, affecting global currencies like the yen.

Investors should stay attuned to the evolving economic indicators and Fed communications, as these will guide market expectations and investment strategies in the coming months.

Source: Bloomberg
Tags: Fed rate cutsInflationJerome Powell
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© 2025 Lumida Wealth Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser. Privacy Policy. Cookies Policy.
Disclaimer Important Information This site is for informational purposes only. Information presented on this site does not constitute as investment advice.

Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

Lumida's website (referred to herein as the "Website") is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of the Website on the Internet should not be construed by any client and/or prospective client Lumida’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet.

Any subsequent, direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

‍Lead Capture Forms: By submitting your contact information in the forms on this site, you are not obligated to invest in Lumida's product or services.
‍Address: Lumida Wealth Management, 25 W 39th Street Suite 700, New York, NY 10018